Apr 29, 2026 15:53 pm IST

Opinion | To Understand UAE's OPEC Exit, Go Back In Time - To A Leaked 'Cable'

The Arab world's rules never sat right with the UAE. So now, it's making its own.

Aditi Bhaduri Aditi Bhaduri Columnist

Aditi Bhaduri Columnist

Yesterday, the UAE announced that it was quitting the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the wider OPEC , with effect from May 1. For a while, this announcement, so consequential as it is, shifted international focus away from the Iran war. The UAE has been a member of OPEC since 1967, first through Abu Dhabi, the most oil-producing Emirate, and then since 1971 as the seven-emirate federation it is today. The UAE's decision, while certain to trigger a chain reaction in the energy markets, will help keep oil prices down, as it will enable it to produce and export more crude, free from the cartel's constraints. For India, this is good news, as not only is it closely aligned with the UAE on many issues, including energy, but also because of its geographical proximity to the Emirates.

One of the reasons for the UAE's decision is, apart from not being constrained in its crude production, to also find buyers closer to it geographically. India is the closest, largest oil importer.

The Saudi Factor Is Just One Of The Reasons

The UAE's decision is also demonstrative of its widening rift with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), the founding member and leader of OPEC. Both in quantitative and in terms of trade routes and corridors, the decision will be a challenge to the Saudis, while giving a freer hand to the Emirates and making them less dependent on the former. The current war has battered its economy, with Iran directing more missiles and drones at it than at any other country - including Israel, which, together with the US, started the war.

On a broader note, however, surprising as the UAE's decision is, it is also fully in keeping with its strong resolve to forge an independent path for itself, grounded in strategic autonomy. This also translates to breaking with regional, in particular, Arab consensus on many issues. The most recent case in point is the report by Axios that during the war, Israel moved an Iron Dome battery and operating personnel to the UAE's territory, which helped deflect many of the strikes launched on it by Iran. 

But to understand what drives the UAE's worldview, we need to step back in time. In 2005, according to a cable made public by WikiLeaks,........

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