I have been more positive about it than Jim Geraghty, although I acknowledge it’s a mixed picture — and that between when I wrote and when he did, the war with Iran has added some risks.

He emphasizes the weakness of the jobs numbers, citing a source that summarizes the last six months as having seen essentially no net growth in employment. He adds, “Keep in mind, in August, economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis calculated that the U.S. economy needs to add between 32,000 and 82,000 jobs per month to keep the unemployment rate stable.”

Ok, but the unemployment rate has been pretty stable. The unemployment rate six months ago, in September, was 4.4 percent. The latest reading is . . . 4.4 percent. Maybe the Fed economists’ calculations were off?

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