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Tasha Kheiriddin: Carney's coveted majority remains just out of reach

The PM's handling of Iran means a spring election is not in the cards

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Has the war in Iran torpedoed a federal election in Canada? Just two weeks ago, speculation abounded that Prime Minister Mark Carney might call a vote to capitalize on sky-high polling numbers and his desire for a majority mandate. But 10 days into Operation Epic Fury, the likelihood of Canadians going to the polls this spring has radically diminished.

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The conflict may be happening half a world away, but it involves key allies, the United States and Israel. Violence has spilled over here at home, with shots fired at synagogues and the U.S. consulate in Toronto. Oil prices are soaring, which benefits Alberta but hurts consumers. The entire situation demands that our government govern rather than campaign.

Tasha Kheiriddin: Carney's coveted majority remains just out of reach Back to video

But it’s more Carney’s handling of the war that could put off a general election — or rather, his mishandling of it. After initially praising U.S. efforts to contain Iran’s nuclear threat, the prime minister began cooling his ardor, saying that the strikes were contrary to international law and Canada supports them “with regret.” In total, he changed positions four times, earning rebukes from the opposition in Monday night’s all-party debate on the war — which Carney didn’t show up for.

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The Liberal caucus is reportedly angry. Taking a position without consultation, especially an unpopular one (polls show Canadians are divided on the U.S. strikes), shows a disrespect for MPs. Leaving Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand to carry the ball during the debate was disrespectful too. Carney might be a darling with voters, but it wouldn’t be smart to send his team out campaigning when they feel like he won’t give them the time of day.

But Carney still needs a majority. So he did the next best thing and called byelections for three vacant ridings, two in Toronto and one in Terrebonne.  Voters will head to the polls April 13: if the Liberals sweep all three, Carney gets his majority — but it is far from guaranteed.

For while the Ontario seats are a slam dunk for the Liberals, the Quebec one is not. Terrebonne hadn’t voted Liberal in 45 years before 24-year-old Tatiana Auguste won last April by a single vote over Bloc Québécois incumbent Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné. Then a BQ voter got her mail-in ballot returned due to an address screw-up by Elections Canada, which meant the election was really a tie. Sinclair-Desgagné took the matter all the way to the Supreme Court, which declared that a new election had to be held.

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Today, polling aggregator Canada385 has the BQ and Liberals neck and neck in Terrebonne, at 39 and 38 per cent respectively. With the Bloc out for blood and the Liberals desperate for a majority, both parties will throw everything at this race. The Liberals are even holding their annual convention in Montreal the weekend before the vote, meaning that every minister can be trotted out to go door knocking (Terrebonne is just half an hour’s drive from downtown Montreal).

But this set of byelections is not the end of the story. There could be up to three more in the months ahead: Liberal MP Nathan Erskine Smith announced last month that he will seek the leadership of the Ontario Liberal party, Quebec NDP MP Andre Boulerice is contemplating running for the leadership of provincial party Québec solidaire, and there are persistent rumours that former environment Minister Steven Guilbeault may ditch political life for greener pastures. The only safe Liberal seat among the three would be Smith’s: if Guilbeault’s went Bloc, Carney would once again be a seat shy of a majority.

As Churchill famously said, “Events, dear boy, events.” U.S. President Donald Trump may claim that the war “is going to be finished pretty quickly,” but for Carney, its implications have just begun.

Tasha Kheiriddin is Postmedia’s national politics columnist.

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