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Kelly McParland: What Quebecers see and what Albertans should

When Quebecers conclude now is not the time to be wandering off into the great, big, dangerous world on their own, it's worth listening to

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When it comes to the separation business, Quebecers are Canada’s long-time leading experts.

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They have decades of experience behind them. Two referenda, five separatist governments, a full-time federal independence party, a long history of squeezing concessions from Ottawa. As far as issuing threats to pick up and leave Canada go, Quebec is Sidney Crosby. Everyone else is everyone else.

Kelly McParland: What Quebecers see and what Albertans should Back to video

So when Quebecers conclude now is not the time to be wandering off into the great, big, dangerous world all on their own, it’s worth listening to. The question is, do Alberta’s noisy bloc of rookie sovereigntists have the ears to hear?

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The latest polling indicates that while Quebec voters are tired of the ruling Coalition Avenir Québec, and are all geared up to pick a new ruling party come October, the Parti Québécois won’t necessarily be their first choice.

The PQ has been leading the polls for months. As recently as Christmas it appeared a PQ government was inevitable, and with it a third referendum. Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon identified Canada as an “existential threat” to French language and culture. A PQ government, he pledged, would hold a third vote on independence within its first term. “Our moment will arrive sooner than we think, meaning not at some long-term idealized date, but in a few years — before the end of the decade.”

But stuff happens in politics. Situations change. Just ask Pierre Poilievre, who was so close to a historic majority he could taste it, until Donald Trump came along, Justin Trudeau departed for the pop pages of celebrity fan mags, and Poilievre found himself seatless, leading a party glued to opposition benches.

A new Leger poll shows that the arrival of a new leader has the Quebec Liberal party, with 30 per cent support, neck-and-neck with the PQ at 31 per cent. A separate Pallas Data-Qc125-L’Actualité poll shows support for independence at a 30-year low, with more than 70 per cent opposed.

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Even if the PQ were to win in October, it could find itself with a province overwhelmingly against its referendum plan. With that in mind, St-Pierre Plamondon is already showing signs of waffling. “Flexibility” is suddenly important.

“We need to remain flexible and not commit ahead in terms of conditions or in terms of date,” he says now. “Would it be the last year or the first year? We need to be flexible and take reasoned decisions when you know the facts.”

Oui, facts are important. The fact that looks to have impressed itself most on Quebecers is the dire shape of the world. A large, prosperous country like Canada faces a tough enough time protecting itself against the dangers let loose by the MAGA virus. Would a small, French-speaking island of uncertain economics really be better off shorn of its existing protections? Think Donald Trump would send you his demands in French? Think he even knows that’s what you speak? Maybe not.

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Alberta has a leg up on Quebec in the financial department. It’s not a have-not province. It doesn’t get equalization payments, but is a big-time contributor to the pot of cash that annually sends billions of dollars Quebec’s way. The belief that it gives more than it gets from Ottawa, with nary a hint of gratitude, is behind the festering sense of resentment that fuels much of the independence boom.

Fair enough. But the fundamental equation remains: would a province of four or five million, heavily dependent on a single source of income whose prospects are outside its control, fare better as a minor player inside the arms of a U.S. republic interested in its oil and not much else?

As a 51st state, Alberta would rank in population with Alabama, which has nine votes out of 538 in the electoral college and seven House seats out of 435. Meaning it would find itself well back in the pack, and even farther back should a significant share of its population choose to decamp for Canada rather than risk their fortunes in the new Alberta. Even if the former province should somehow avoid being sucked into actual statehood it would find its future being dictated by the U.S., which buys 90 per cent of its exports.

The unfortunate degree to which Alberta still relies on oil and gas income was made clear in the whipsawing of prices since its latest budget. In it, Danielle Smith’s United Conservative government set out a future of unbroken deficits and rising debt extending to the end of its mandate and perhaps beyond, violating its own rule against extended deficits and denting its claim to capable management.

Lower oil prices meant resource revenue of $22 billion in 2024-25 would drop to $13 billion this year, it forecast. Lower revenue demands changes if budgets are to be balanced, but despite its claims to tough-minded economic principles the Smith government refused to risk angering voters by either raising taxes or cutting what it spends.

“Albertans know these times aren’t easy and the path ahead will require tough choices,” Finance Minister Nate Horner declared, before adding that he wouldn’t be making any.

“We’re not cutting essential services during rapid population growth and we’re not raising personal taxes or introducing a (provincial sales tax) to undermine our competitiveness.” Instead they’ll borrow, like the New Democrats before them and Liberals everywhere.

All was bleak. Then Donald Trump started a war on Iran and prices soared. Could hit US$200 a barrel, Iran’s military warned. Bad news for the world, a potential bonanza for Alberta. Suddenly a projected deficit of $9.4 billion was down to $1.1 billion. Or, who knows, maybe less? Certainly not the government of Alberta. As an independent country it would have no more control over the roller-coaster of its most crucial source of income than it does now.

The collection of dangers confronting the province is lengthy and for real. “We’re dealing with lower oil prices, global trade uncertainty, rising construction and operating costs and continued population pressures on infrastructure and services,” Horner said.

He didn’t say: “And you think this is a good time to quit Canada and go it on our own?”

Maybe he should have. Quebecers seem to recognize the obvious. Perhaps they could send Albertans a letter. And a calculator.

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