Share this Story : National Post Copy Link Email X Reddit Pinterest LinkedIn Tumblr

John Ivison: The election temptation of Mark Carney

There is a strong chance that if Carney were to force an election without a clear purpose, he could end up back where he started

You can save this article by registering for free here. Or sign-in if you have an account.

If the only way to get rid of temptation is to yield to it, Prime Minister Mark Carney might consider visiting the Governor General in the coming weeks and asking her to dissolve Parliament.

Enjoy the latest local, national and international news.

Exclusive articles by Conrad Black, Barbara Kay and others. Plus, special edition NP Platformed and First Reading newsletters and virtual events.

Unlimited online access to National Post.

National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.

Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword.

Support local journalism.

Enjoy the latest local, national and international news.

Exclusive articles by Conrad Black, Barbara Kay and others. Plus, special edition NP Platformed and First Reading newsletters and virtual events.

Unlimited online access to National Post.

National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.

Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword.

Support local journalism.

Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.

Access articles from across Canada with one account.

Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.

Enjoy additional articles per month.

Get email updates from your favourite authors.

Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.

Access articles from across Canada with one account

Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments

Enjoy additional articles per month

Get email updates from your favourite authors

Sign In or Create an Account

The latest polls are starting to show a seductive spread in his favour — both in the horse race, and as far as whom Canadians consider best prime minister.

John Ivison: The election temptation of Mark Carney Back to video

(A new Nanos poll released Tuesday has the Liberals at 41.3 per cent support, versus 33.7 per cent for the Conservatives; while Carney is viewed as preferable for prime minister by 54.3 per cent of respondents, versus 23.1 per cent in favour of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre).

There will be advisers and MPs close to Carney urging him to contrive the conditions to call a spring election. A stable majority would appear to be a foregone conclusion.

This newsletter tackles hot topics with boldness, verve and wit. (Subscriber-exclusive edition on Fridays)

There was an error, please provide a valid email address.

By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.

A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.

The next issue of Platformed will soon be in your inbox.

We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try again

Interested in more newsletters? Browse here.

Except, that is not how it has turned out on previous occasions when the Liberals went to voters with the proposition: “We are brilliant at running the country as a minority government, but we’d be even more brilliant if we had a majority.”

In 1965 and in 2021, voters said they preferred the status quo and returned the Liberal governments of Lester B. Pearson and Justin Trudeau respectively, virtually unchanged.

In 1965, Pearson had a 20-point lead in the polls two months before the vote and won by just eight points.

In 2021, Trudeau declared the election to be “the most important since 1945,” which was palpable, self-serving nonsense. People may be prepared to tolerate the disruption and expense of an election if the case is made convincingly. But voters are not motivated to give a politician something just because he or she wants it.

There is a strong chance that if Carney were to force an election without a clear purpose, he could end up back where he started seat-wise — but be worse off in terms of reputation. It would undoubtedly be viewed as off-brand for the self-confessed non-career politician to put the country through the upheaval of an election for the prospect of marginal political gain.

He is likely to get his majority in time through the attrition of byelections, so why take the risk? I would be amazed, and disappointed, if he does.

John Ivison: Trump’s tariffs on Canada are about to get worse

John Ivison: Let the turf war over Carney’s defence-spending bonanza begin

Advertisement 1Story continues belowThis advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.document.addEventListener(`DOMContentLoaded`,function(){let template=document.getElementById(`oop-ad-template`);if(template&&!template.dataset.adInjected){let clone=template.content.cloneNode(!0);template.replaceWith(clone),template.parentElement&&(template.parentElement.dataset.adInjected=`true`)}});

Carney continues to have the field to himself when it comes to the top-tier trade and security vulnerabilities that concern Canadians.

Global News reported this week that Carney will have spent 20 per cent of his first year out of the country by the time he completes his upcoming trip to India, Australia and Japan, double that of his predecessor, Trudeau.

That is as it should be for a prime minister who has made trade diversification the focus of his time in office.

Poilievre’s response has been to criticize him for “prancing around abroad” and “jetting off for photo-ops” while people at home line up at food banks.

Would Canadians be better served if Carney lined up with them? Of course not.

Canada’s trade with the United States dipped five per cent in the year to the end of November, but increases in Europe and Asia Pacific more than made up for that slippage. Correlation is not causation, but neither is it a coincidence that the U.K. is now Canada’s second-largest export market. Carney is unapologetic about his travel schedule, believing it’s the best way to get a feel for the world and to help shape what is coming next.

U.S. country star cancels Canadian tour after being denied entry twice at the border Canada

U.S. country star cancels Canadian tour after being denied entry twice at the border

‘You’ve seen nothing yet’: In State of the Union address, defiant Trump shows no sign of changing course World

‘You’ve seen nothing yet’: In State of the Union address, defiant Trump shows no sign of changing course

Advertisement 2Story continues belowThis advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.document.addEventListener(`DOMContentLoaded`,function(){let template=document.getElementById(`oop-ad-template`);if(template&&!template.dataset.adInjected){let clone=template.content.cloneNode(!0);template.replaceWith(clone),template.parentElement&&(template.parentElement.dataset.adInjected=`true`)}});

First Florida, then Cuba now Mexico. What are the March Break alternatives for Canadians? News

First Florida, then Cuba now Mexico. What are the March Break alternatives for Canadians?

As Canadian visits to the U.S. continue to decline, American visits to Canada fall 7.5%, says Statistics Canada Canada

As Canadian visits to the U.S. continue to decline, American visits to Canada fall 7.5%, says Statistics Canada

New passport rules for British-Canadian dual citizens: what you need to know Canada

New passport rules for British-Canadian dual citizens: what you need to know

Poilievre is set to lay out his vision for Canada-U.S. relations at the Economic Club of Canada on Thursday night — but that is 13 months into Donald Trump’s second presidency.

There is no record that I can find of the Conservative leader having travelled anywhere outside Canada as leader of the Opposition (although I do remember seeing him in the Canadian embassy in Washington during the Harper government).

To be fair, it is not generally part of the Opposition leader’s job description. Stephen Harper had virtually no overseas experience before becoming prime minister.

But Tom Mulcair, who was leader of the second party in the House from 2012 to 2015, visited the U.S. to speak to a business council about NDP sustainability policies; and France, where he met the French prime minister on a “pseudo-state visit” aimed at bolstering his international status.

Conservative MP Jamil Jivani recently proved that doors in Washington are wide open to those who are ideologically aligned with the administration. That may not apply to Poilievre, who Trump noted last year in an interview with The Spectator “is not a MAGA guy.”

But how can he offer his vision of how to deal with Trump when he has no feel for the conditions on the ground or the nuances of what is happening inside the administration?

It is something he could correct at the Economic Club by announcing that he plans to visit Washington soon.

Carney’s position looks fairly unassailable, but fate tends to have a custard pie up its sleeve at such moments.

Poilievre’s latest gambit is the number of failed asylum claimants receiving “deluxe” supplementary health care. The associated health-care cost increases — $896 million last year from $211 million in 2020/21 — do not reflect well on the government that broke the consensus around immigration. But Poilievre’s finger-pointing at “fraudulent” claimants sounds too Trumpy to gain broad currency in Canada right now.

The Carney government’s promise to build homes “at speeds never imagined” seems far richer terrain for the Opposition.

The Liberals’ Bill C-20 has just received second reading in the House, with the promise that the new Build Canada Homes agency will act nimbly as developer and financier of new homes.

Carney promised 500,000 homes a year, and the number of new homes did increase by 5.6 per cent year on year to 259,000 homes last year. But developers are saying momentum this year is slowing, hit by geopolitical uncertainty, high construction costs, weaker demand and rising inventories.

Doubling the number of new homes built in Canada is not a target that can be elided by a wink and a prime ministerial grin.

Carney’s grand bargain with Alberta of environmental concessions in exchange for an oil pipeline is another challenge for the government.

In his memorandum of understanding with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, the prime minister scrapped the emissions cap on oil and gas, suspended renewable electricity mandates and displayed an openness to reconsidering the West Coast oil tanker ban.

But Smith’s popularity rests on picking fights with Ottawa, and Carney’s conditions of a strengthened industrial carbon price and oil “decarbonized” by carbon capture and storage are at odds with that model.

Smith has just announced a number of plebiscites scheduled for October, many of which are antithetical to any federal government, particularly the prospect of a vote on separation.

The relationship appears to be untenable in the longer term, and its breakdown would be a significant setback to Carney’s environmental and economic development plans.

Carney’s partisan advisers might be urging him to insulate himself against the disillusionment that comes with time in government.

The counterpoint is that very few Canadians are under any illusions that the leader of the Opposition has a better vision of how Canada can adapt itself to the new reality of life in the time of Trump.

Share this Story : National Post Copy Link Email X Reddit Pinterest LinkedIn Tumblr

Postmedia is committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion. Please keep comments relevant and respectful. Comments may take up to an hour to appear on the site. You will receive an email if there is a reply to your comment, an update to a thread you follow or if a user you follow comments. Visit our Community Guidelines for more information.

How to spot fake reviews when shopping online in Canada: Expert tips Julie Matthews, a consumer protection expert, reveals ways to shop smarter online 14 hours ago Buy Canadian

How to spot fake reviews when shopping online in Canada: Expert tips

Julie Matthews, a consumer protection expert, reveals ways to shop smarter online

These are the 3 best beauty products we tried this week Beauty Buzz: The 3 best beauty products we tried this week from Fenty Beauty, Dermalogica and Hermès 16 hours ago Fashion & Beauty

These are the 3 best beauty products we tried this week

Beauty Buzz: The 3 best beauty products we tried this week from Fenty Beauty, Dermalogica and Hermès

5 packing essentials for a stylish spring break Packing a vacation suitcase or just figuring out what to wear in the coming months? Here are five essentials 16 hours ago Life

5 packing essentials for a stylish spring break

Packing a vacation suitcase or just figuring out what to wear in the coming months? Here are five essentials

Advertisement 3Story continues belowThis advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.document.addEventListener(`DOMContentLoaded`,function(){let template=document.getElementById(`oop-ad-template`);if(template&&!template.dataset.adInjected){let clone=template.content.cloneNode(!0);template.replaceWith(clone),template.parentElement&&(template.parentElement.dataset.adInjected=`true`)}});

CYBEX e-Gazelle S review: An electronic boost and rocking mode This stroller grows with your family with its 20+ configurations 20 hours ago Lifestyle

CYBEX e-Gazelle S review: An electronic boost and rocking mode

This stroller grows with your family with its 20+ configurations

How to clean your dishwasher: Tips to keep it fresh Clean every 30 days or 30 cycles 21 hours ago Home Living

How to clean your dishwasher: Tips to keep it fresh

Clean every 30 days or 30 cycles

© National Post