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28.03.2026

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Conrad Black: With Iran war, Trump boxes China in

The U.S. is at minimal risk from high oil prices, not so for China

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The Iran war was unleashed so suddenly and has proceeded so swiftly that some of its principal objectives and consequences have scarcely been noticed. A few commentators have recognized the pattern of the Trump administration’s removal of Venezuela and soon Cuba and by the actions of Israel, Syria, as well as Iran, as Russo-Chinese allies. But the real background to the status of the Strait of Hormuz as a conduit for 20 per cent of the world’s oil exports has not been seriously publicly explored. There is no doubt that the United States could force the Strait open and it has substantially prepared to do that by obliterating the missile firing capability on the southern Iranian coast and by severely reducing the number of potential interoceptive Iranian warships and swift boats.

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Those addicted to the assumption that the Trump administration is incapable of ingenious strategic planning have failed to notice that while the United States is not at all dependent on Middle Eastern oil and the European Union receives only six per cent of its crude oil and nine per cent of its natural gas through the Hormuz Strait and 16 per cent of its petroleum and 45 per cent of its natural gas from the United States, China receives almost half of its crude oil imports from the Hormuz Strait. The flow of oil through the Strait to China has been reduced by up to 75 per cent and the rise in domestic........

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