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Opinion: The logic of Iran's brinkmanship

Tehran's strategy ensures every attempt to increase military pressure carries the risk of provoking another round of escalation

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Iran’s decision to escalate the war last week appears counterintuitive. As Omani mediators sought to preserve a diplomatic opening through a renewed truce and continued negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran instead launched a direct ballistic missile attack on U.S. bases in Jordan, while expanding pressure across other fronts. The move sharply increased the risk of a broader regional conflict.

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Reports soon emerged that Washington was preparing strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure before Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates reportedly intervened to preserve the diplomatic track. Why did Tehran choose escalation at the very moment when an off-ramp appeared within reach? The answer lies in the Islamic Republic’s internal balance of power.

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