With West Asia on the boil again after a fragile cessation of hostilities, the Gulf monarchies confront an uncomfortable truth. The old security order may not have collapsed but it has certainly lost credibility. For decades, the Gulf states lived under a US security umbrella, buying protection, weapons and diplomatic backing in exchange for oil, military basing rights and strategic loyalty. The bargain was not equal, but it was predictable. The war with Iran has exposed the untenability of those old assumptions.

No state understands this better than Saudi Arabia, the strategic centre of the Gulf system. When Riyadh recalibrates, the region follows. Qatar may continue to mediate, the United Arab Emirates may pursue its own activist foreign policy, Oman may preserve its neutrality, and Bahrain and Kuwait try to hedge their bets by engaging both sides to manage the risks of regional escalation. Yet the future of Gulf security will ultimately be shaped by Saudi Arabia’s conclusion that exclusive dependence on Washington has become a strategic liability.

The Iran war has not made the US irrelevant, it has made it insufficient. America’s military power is still unmatched in the Gulf, but confidence in its judgment has eroded in Gulf capitals, which have seen Washington getting entangled in Israel’s confrontation with Iran, in a ‘war of choice’ whose consequences are being borne disproportionately by Gulf states.

US military bases, once seen as symbols of protection, are suddenly magnets of vulnerability. Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and the UAE are learning that to host American forces is to face the wrath of America’s enemy in West Asia. While Saudi Arabia has escaped direct attacks, it has drawn exactly the same conclusion.

The security dilemma of Gulf states has become even more complicated with Israel suddenly shifting its focus from Iran to Türkiye. Turkish President Recep Tayyip........

© National Herald