Saudi Arabia has spent decades preparing for a confrontation with Iran. It has purchased some of the world’s most advanced weapons from the West, built a close security partnership with the United States and competed with Tehran for influence across West Asia.

Yet, as Trump’s stop-start war against Iran makes the region dangerously volatile, it’s doing everything possible to avoid being seen as a direct belligerent. This, even after it signed a ‘strategic mutual defence agreement’ with nuclear-power Pakistan in 2025.

This is not a sign of Saudi indecision or weakness, but of a strategic realism born of a clear understanding of the limits of military power.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman seems to recognise what the US and Israel and even the UAE refuse to acknowledge. The US and Israel can destroy some Iranian military installations, energy facilities and civilian infrastructure. But even largescale destruction is not the same as a political victory. Neither country has a credible plan to enforce a regime change in Iran — a large country of more than 90 million people with a strong state tradition and capacity for asymmetric retaliation.

The war has once again demonstrated the gap beyond destructive capability and strategic control. Far from capitulating, Iran has struck US bases and interests across the region, disrupted maritime traffic and mobilised allied armed groups in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen.

Saudi Arabia is dangerously exposed to these consequences. Its oil installations, desalination plants, ports, airports, electricity networks and new data centres are easy targets for Iran. The September 2019 attacks on the........

© National Herald