Late on Monday night, residents of Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz reported a series of explosions. US officials later confirmed what they called limited “defensive” strikes, saying they were responding to an Iranian attack on an American aircraft. Hours earlier, Iran said it had shot down two US reconnaissance drones over the same waters, a claim Washington denies. On the same day, Vice President JD Vance told reporters that he and President Donald Trump “feel pretty good about the prospect of reaching a settlement” with Tehran.

That sequence captures the war as Americans vote in today’s midterm elections. Talks are moving, strikes are continuing, and the distance between the two can close in a single night.

It also captures the contradiction at the heart of Washington’s approach. Last week Vance sent a letter to Major General Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, and Rezaei acknowledged that its tone was markedly different from earlier American correspondence. Yet the president’s own words over the same days point the other way. On 31 October Trump said: “We still have one or two sites in Iran to take care of, and we can do that in ten minutes. We’ll probably have to take care of Pickaxe Mountain.” The next day he said the only reason he had not “finished Iran” was that he wanted to save lives, adding: “At some point, we’re going to have to bring the hammer down on them.” Later that day he claimed the US had destroyed Iran’s nuclear capability and “can do it again in five minutes.” On Monday the White House said Iran “can choose the easy way or the hard way,” and that Trump “holds all the cards.” A respectful letter means something only if conduct follows. As Rezaei has put it, a change in tone is not enough without a change in behaviour.

Tehran’s answer has been to make the price of the hard way explicit, and to make clear that Iranians will not be the only ones paying it.

Tehran’s answer has been to make the price of the hard way explicit, and to make clear that Iranians will not be the only........

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