It seems that a third round of war between the United States, Israel, and Iran may be approaching. The United States and Israel may be considering another military campaign, hoping to achieve their goals through surprise attacks and a further escalation of tensions. They may believe that a stronger and more extensive attack could weaken Iran’s military capabilities and as Trump has put it, “finish them off” once and for all. However, the conditions have changed. Iran has gained direct experience from the previous wars and has had time to strengthen its internal resilience for another battle, develop its response options, and prepare a realistic and actionable target bank for different scenarios. Therefore, a new conflict would begin under different circumstances.

The two previous wars gave Tehran direct experience of the military capabilities of the United States and Israel, their methods of attack, and the weaknesses in Iran’s own defense system. Iran has since had time to address some of these weaknesses and strengthen its military capabilities.

We should also consider the much lower risk of surprise.

In the previous wars, the initial attacks caught parts of Iran’s military and security structures off guard. This time, Iran had time to strengthen security measures around its senior political and military leaders.

In the previous wars, the initial attacks caught parts of Iran’s military and security structures off guard. This time, Iran had time to strengthen security measures around its senior political and military leaders.

The protection of commanders and key officials is now likely to be much stronger than it was during the previous conflicts. This does not mean that Iran can prevent every terror effort, but the chances of repeating the same level of surprise have become very low.

Iran has also learned from the overall military and security experience of the two wars. It now has a better understanding of where American vulnerabilities lie, and how it can use its own military and technical capabilities to........

© Middle East Monitor