The boomerang: How America’s semiconductor war backfired
There is an ancient Chinese proverb that Washington strategists should have remembered: “When you shoot an arrow of revenge, dig two graves.” They didn’t listen. And now we are watching the most spectacular economic boomerang in modern history.
Three years ago, the United States launched what its architects called the “nuclear option” against China. They banned the export of advanced semiconductors. They blocked the machines that manufacture them. They told Beijing: your technological future ends here. In the halls of the Pentagon, there was a quiet celebration. The thinking was seductive in its simplicity. Without American chips, China’s artificial intelligence revolution would die. Its economy would stagnate. Its military would fall behind.
The CEOs of major American tech giants are no longer toasting their government’s resolve. They are rushing to Washington with a message that is equal parts urgent and humiliating: the sanctions didn’t kill China. They are killing us.
Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius wrote that “our life is what our thoughts make it”. Washington’s thoughts, in this case, were dangerously wishful.
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To understand the magnitude of this miscalculation, you need to grasp one structural reality that policymakers chose to ignore: Silicon Valley’s business model does not merely depend on China. It is, in critical ways, built on China. Companies like Nvidia invest billions annually in research and development. China accounts for more than........
