A missile fired from Iranian soil struck the United Arab Emirates on March 16, 2026. It was not a stray consequence of a distant war. It marked the culmination of a project that began in a Paris suburb in January 1979, when Ruhollah Khomeini boarded a plane for Tehran carrying a doctrine never intended to stop at Iran’s borders.

To understand why Gulf states have spent this year defending their territory from Iranian fire, and why the region is now rewriting its security architecture in response, it is necessary to trace the full arc. Forty-seven years is a long time. Yet the direction has barely changed.

1979: A Doctrine Built for Export

Khomeini returned from 14 years of exile, most of them spent in Najaf, Iraq, carrying with him the doctrine of Velayat-e Faqih, or the guardianship of the jurist. The theory placed a cleric above parliament, above the presidency, and above any ballot box.

Khomeini returned from 14 years of exile, most of them spent in Najaf, Iraq, carrying with him the doctrine of Velayat-e Faqih, or the guardianship of the jurist. The theory placed a cleric above parliament, above the presidency, and above any ballot box.

Yet it was never framed as a purely domestic arrangement. Khomeini described the Iranian revolution as the first stage of a wider Islamic awakening; one he expected Shia communities elsewhere to join.

The Shah he replaced was no democrat. Mohammad Reza Pahlavi jailed and tortured his opponents. But the Shah’s Iran, sustained by oil revenue that funded students studying medicine and engineering abroad after the 1953 nationalization dispute, possessed functioning institutions and established regional relationships. Khomeini inherited that capacity and redirected it. Revolution, rather than reconstruction, became Iran’s principal export.

1980s to 2015: The Proxy Ring Tightens

Gulf states........

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