Last Friday, 1st May, Slovakia’s prime minister, Robert Fico, commented to journalists that his assessment of global stability was reduced to a startlingly simple metric: the morning temperament of the American President. “Everything is under pressure, including oil prices, depending on how President Trump wakes up,” Fico remarked, noting that a “good mood” can send oil prices tumbling while a single erratic statement can send them surging.

While Fico’s comments might sound like hyperbole, they describe a new and precarious “Barometer of Volatility” that now governs international security. For the Middle East—a region where the price of a barrel and the movement of a carrier strike group are often determined by whispers in Washington—this unpredictability is not just a market fluctuation; it is a fundamental shift in the global order.

As the White House trades traditional diplomacy for a “mood-driven” foreign policy, the world is learning that the line between a diplomatic breakthrough and a regional conflagration may now depend entirely on the disposition of one man.

As the White House trades traditional diplomacy for a “mood-driven” foreign policy, the world is learning that the line between a diplomatic breakthrough and a regional conflagration may now depend entirely on the disposition of one man.

In the Middle East, this “mood-driven” diplomacy bypasses traditional statecraft, leaving both allies and adversaries in a perpetual state of reactionary hedging. Effectively, it hollows out state institutions, reducing them to mere echo chambers for the president, unable to add context, explain nuances, or correct the proclamations splashed across social media several times a day. For regional powers accustomed to the slow-moving gears of State........

© Middle East Monitor