For two nights after US Central Command announced a 13th consecutive night of strikes, it issued no announcement of fresh attacks on Iran. Yet coercion continued at sea. American forces said they had redirected 12 commercial vessels attempting to breach the blockade of Iranian ports, disabled two and boarded two. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said warning shots had forced four vessels away from the southern route near Oman. The air campaign paused; the struggle over who writes the operating rules of the Strait of Hormuz did not.

This is neither a ceasefire nor proof that talks, which Tehran says have made technical progress, will produce one.

The lull exposes the limit of controlled force. Washington cannot restore normal navigation merely by destroying more targets already struck. Tehran cannot turn its capacity to disrupt shipping into recognised authority over an international strait.

The lull exposes the limit of controlled force. Washington cannot restore normal navigation merely by destroying more targets already struck. Tehran cannot turn its capacity to disrupt shipping into recognised authority over an international strait.

The question is whether measures capable of changing the Guard’s decision would also carry the conflict beyond its maritime object.

Both sides impose different forms of coercion on third-country shipping. The US blockade restricts commerce entering and leaving Iran. Tehran seeks to condition passage through the Strait of Hormuz on its preferred route, approval and potentially a price. The claims — access to Iranian ports and transit through an international strait — are not legally equivalent, but their collision defines the war at sea.

The Hormuz outcome has two measurable dimensions. The first is authority. If ships can use the Omani corridor without Iranian approval, mandatory charges or discrimination by flag or cargo, the international rule of transit passage has prevailed. If Tehran can select vessels or vary the conditions, its wartime veto has been institutionalised. The second is restoration. Legal access is not normal navigation: owners, crews and insurers must return, while the central traffic-separation scheme must be cleared and verified safe. The International Maritime Organization says transit cannot be denied or suspended and must remain non-discriminatory and toll-free. Oman’s temporary corridor is open to all vessels without transit fees, although ships coordinate with the IMO. Iran retains coastal-state functions over safety, IMO-compliant traffic regulation and mine clearance. Those functions do not confer a unilateral licence to permit or refuse transit.........

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