Egypt faces an unusual paradox. A country that once presented itself as the gas hub of the Eastern Mediterranean now depends increasingly on liquefied natural gas imports to fuel its power stations and supply its industries. Yet Cairo continues to derive part of its regional influence from energy infrastructure, geography and transit networks.

At first glance, this may appear to signal the decline of Egypt’s energy power. The reality is more complex. Egypt is moving from a model in which power was based primarily on resource ownership to one in which infrastructure, routes and strategic points of connection matter increasingly.

The central question is whether Egypt can continue exporting energy influence while importing more LNG.

From self-sufficiency to renewed imports

The discovery of the Zohr gas field in 2015 strengthened expectations that Egypt could meet domestic demand and become a reliable exporter in the Eastern Mediterranean. Rising production, the reactivation of the Idku and Damietta liquefaction terminals and the resumption of LNG exports placed Cairo at the centre of emerging regional energy plans.

That period did not last. Declining output from several fields, rising electricity consumption, population growth, energy-intensive industrial development and constraints on upstream investment disrupted the country’s gas balance.

Egyptian production has fallen significantly from its 2021 peak, producing a gradual shift from LNG exporter to importer.

Egyptian production has fallen significantly from its 2021 peak, producing a gradual shift from LNG exporter to importer.

Official documents reviewed by Reuters indicate that Egypt’s total gas imports — including pipeline supplies from Israel and LNG cargoes — could reach approximately 1.08 trillion cubic feet between July 2026 and June 2027. Cairo is also negotiating multi-year LNG contracts with major energy companies in an effort to gain greater protection from spot-market volatility and geopolitical disruption.

Such contracts could strengthen security of supply, but they would also increase import costs and place additional........

© Middle East Monitor