Kerala’s all-important Assembly election is barely days away. The stakes are high for all three political fronts, though to varying degrees. For the LDF, a victory is crucial to retain what is now its last major bastion in the country. The UDF faces an existential moment: a third consecutive defeat could rupture its nearly half-century-old coalition. The NDA, though still a marginal force in terms of seats, has reputational stakes—especially after its symbolic and prestigious breakthrough in the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation.

Yet the most striking feature of this election is not a visible surge for any front—but the absence of one. Kerala, for many decades, followed a predictable electoral pattern - alternation of power between the LDF and the UDF. This “revolving-door” system functioned as an embedded democratic corrective which ensured accountability among parties and prevented them from taking voters for granted. Rare deviations from this were driven by exceptional circumstances—such as the post-Emergency churn of 1977 or the extraordinary context of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021. These freak outcomes first enabled the UDF and then the LDF to break the cycle and secure a second consecutive term.

Logically, a government seeking a third term after ten uninterrupted years should face a formidable anti-incumbency wave—particularly in a state like Kerala known for its choosy voters. It was clearly evident in the 2024 Lok Sabha and Local bodies polls last year. Interestingly, such sentiments have been openly expressed not only by the LDF’s critics or the non-partisan public but even by staunch Left supporters, including prominent cultural leaders. Their argument, though, sounds a tad romantic for an electoral warfare, but it is not entirely without logic. According to these “critical insiders”, the Left should be defeated this time for the sake of its own survival, as the long innings in power have led to deep internal decay. They believe a stint in the Opposition could cleanse the LDF of complacency, cut the flab, and help it rebound slim and trim. They back the argument by pointing to West Bengal, where, despite its long political, cultural and social hegemony, the Left is yet to reappear after a single woman threw them into the Bay of Bengal over a decade ago.

And yet, as the campaign draws to a close, a perceptible wave remains elusive.

Pre-poll surveys across the spectrum, conducted by national or regional agencies, including those by media houses not sympathetic to the Left, though give the UDF an edge, do not indicate any sweeping surge against the incumbent. Except in districts where Muslim and Christian communities dominate, the LDF appears capable of holding ground in the rest of the state—albeit with reduced margins.........

© Mathrubhumi English