The cease-fire in the Middle East began to unravel the moment it was announced.

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Described as a pause, it increasingly looks like something more fragile: a temporary interruption in a conflict whose underlying dynamics remain unresolved. Yet much of the public discussion in the United States still rests on a familiar assumption - that sufficient military and economic pressure will eventually force Iran to back down, the latest being the blockade of Iran’s ports. That assumption may prove dangerously misplaced.

At the centre of the American strategy is a clear and publicly stated objective: the Strait of Hormuz must remain open. When a political leader frames an outcome as essential, the cost of failing to achieve it rises sharply. The issue ceases to be purely strategic. It becomes a question of credibility.

For Trump, this war is no longer simply about Iran. It is about demonstrating that the United States can still impose outcomes on the rest of the world when its core interests are challenged.

In that sense, the United States does not just seek success. It increasingly requires it. Iran, however, is operating under a........

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