President Donald Trump has assembled the largest American naval armada in the Middle East since the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. He is using this overwhelming display of force to intimidate the Iranian leaders into something close to capitulation.

But supposing the threat fails, will Trump then go to war with Iran, a country with a population of 92 million under a united leadership determined to stay in power? Though weakened by a string of Israeli victories over its allies in the Middle East and by the Israeli and US air attack last June, Iran still has an arsenal of ballistic missiles and might close the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow channel at the entrance to the Gulf through which passes a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.

Iran says loudly that it will retaliate as strongly as possible in a new war, having dropped its old policy of “strategic patience”. That meant avoiding war with the US at all costs, but it was interpreted in the US and Israel as a sign of Iranian feebleness.

Crucial changes are taking place in the Middle East, reshaping its political landscape for decades to come. If the US now inflicts a decisive defeat on Iran, marginalising it as a significant player, then America, in close alliance with Israel, will have gained hegemonic power in the region.

In what is being described as a last ditch diplomatic effort to avoid war, the US and Iran held indirect talks in Geneva on Thursday and will meet again in Vienna next week. Ostensibly, the talks concern Iran’s nuclear programme and capacity to enrich uranium, despite Trump having previously claimed to have obliterated both in a B-2 bomber raid on three Iranian nuclear facilities last year.

The US also wants to talk about Iran’s ballistic missiles and Iranian-backed Shia Muslim paramilitary groups in the Middle East. In return for concessions, Iran wants relief from the economic sanctions crushing Iranian society and fuelling massive anti-regime protests. But it suspects that such concession will simply be banked by Washington whose objective is to humble Iran irrecoverably, either through regime change or by a Venezuelan-type long distance subjugation.

On the face of it, the US has complete military superiority: the aircraft carriers Gerald R Ford and Abraham Lincoln, along with 13 guided-missile destroyers. are heading towards Iran. The US should be able to control Iranian airspace and bomb at will as Israel did last year. Yet, for all these advantages, many in Washington are hesitant as they recall how what had appeared to be easy military successes in Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003 turned into draining, inconclusive conflicts in which final US victory was always just over the hill.

The Pentagon has certainly not forgotten these grim precedents and does not intend to be blamed if anything goes wrong. Over the last week, there has been a remarkable cascade of high-level leaks from the Pentagon published in the mainstream US media, warning Trump about the risks of an extended military campaign against Iran, producing US casualties, depleted munition stockpiles, and an over-stretched US military.

Trump has reportedly been told by General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,........

© iNews