One of the most boring, aggrandising cliches of our age is that Donald Trump is unpredictable. That, like Cato Fong – the chandelier-swinging martial arts manservant in the Pink Panther movies – Trump can ambush his unsuspecting opponents with a swift karate chop to the nether regions. A perpetual reflex test on the entire world.

But what if Trump is less Cato, more Clouseau? The fumbling French inspector who leaves a wake of chaos in every job he attempts? What if it’s not only possible to second-guess Trump, but to predict him before he actually knows he’s going to move?

Is there investment to be made based on a pattern he’s already shown us?

There is something so haplessly predictable to Trump that even those unfortunate enough to have to trade the stock market without insider knowledge are finding they can guess what’s coming. He has created his own algorithm based on mood swings rather than metadata. And it’s proving quietly helpful to those in the money business. 

The academic Jeffrey Sonnenfeld has just published a book called Trump’s Ten Commandments: Strategic Lessons from the Trump Leadership Toolbox. Curiously the kind of airport stockists title Trump might give one of his own. “We are in neither a bull market nor a bear market right now,” Sonnenfeld observes. “We are just in a Trump market”. What is certainly clear is that macroeconomics in 2026 –........

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