I was first introduced to the petroleum business 50 years ago when I commenced my graduate thesis on Iran’s trade policy with a focus on the barter of crude oil for other commodities. The thesis made me appreciate the intricacies of petroleum pricing, and I have since limited my answers to questions on the trajectory of oil prices to three words. I don’t know. This is because the trajectory of prices is determined by six factors, of which only three lend themselves to quantitative rigour — supply, demand and exchange rates. The other three — geopolitics, speculative trade and idiosyncratic leadership — are driven by subjective sentiment.

In a similar vein, this article is no more than reflections on the “off-ramp” ramifications of the current conflict. US President Donald Trump went into this war with a mix of objectives, but one statement has been heard more often than others — “regime change”. He may well achieve this objective, but not quite in the way he meant it. His objective was regime change in Iran. What he may have triggered is a process of regime change elsewhere. In time, high oil prices, supply chain disruptions and recession could erode public support for governments........

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