There is a famous saying, “never let a serious crisis go to waste”. India’s landmark economic reforms in 1991 were the result of a balance-of-payments crisis. And today the country sits on comfortable foreign exchange reserves of over $728 billion, providing a good cushion to absorb external shocks. But the ongoing war in the Gulf between Iran on one side and Israel and the US on the other has exposed the vulnerabilities of energy and fertiliser supplies. The situation calls for strategic thinking and reforms in the fertiliser sector to ensure food security.

The escalating war is threatening a major disruption in energy and fertiliser supplies. The risks extend to vital maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz, through which a substantial share of global oil and gas trade passes. Any disruption in this corridor quickly ripples across commodity markets. Oil and gas, and by extension fertilisers, especially urea, have already felt the tremors.

For India, crude oil is the largest import item, with about 88 per cent of its requirement being met through imports. In the financial year 2024–25 (FY25), India imported approximately 243 million tonnes (Mt) of crude oil worth $137 billion, nearly half of which was sourced from the Middle East via the Strait of Hormuz. Just before tensions escalated in late February, Brent crude averaged $66 per barrel, but within two weeks, prices spiked to around $120 per barrel before settling near $100 on March 13. India’s exposure extends to cooking gas as well. The country imports about two-thirds of its LPG (31.3 Mt in FY25), much of which moves through the same corridor. As supplies tightened and import costs rose, domestic LPG........

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