The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), which, according to many pollsters, was set to win comfortably, if not by itself, but at least with the support of its admittedly grumpy alliance partners, has barely pipped AIADMK (All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) for the second position. Stunningly, Chief Minister Muthuvel Karunanidhi Stalin has lost his pocket borough of Kolathur by a convincing margin, even as many of his party veterans have fallen. A lone exit poll pundit who predicted a Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) victory was mocked by all-knowing political analysts. Even though technically it is a hung assembly, it is nothing but a tsunami in favour of C Joseph Vijay and his fledgling party. What explains this shocker, and how did political analysts and academics miss this phenomenon?

Riding on a slew of welfare measures and the momentum of three consecutive electoral victories (2019 and 2024 Parliament and 2021 state assembly elections), the DMK clearly misread the depth of the anti-incumbency sentiment. In developing a cosiness with intellectuals and supposed opinion-makers, it was smug in its echo chamber. The unseemly hurry to anoint Udhayanidhi Stalin as heir apparent fuelled the charge of dynastic politics. The resentment of government employees, extensive use of outsourcing to constrict tenured employment, the ham-handed handling of unionisation efforts (for example, in the Samsung factory), and the continuing unsustainable exploitation of natural........

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