There is more than one reason why the 2026 NPT Review Conference (Rev Con) failed. Many ex post facto analyses have attributed the failure to current geopolitics and fatigued Rev Con processes. Attention is also due to the structural inequalities, the very formative thought processes that shaped the NPT’s present existence, in addition to the developments within the bilateral framework of the US–Russia nuclear relations. On 22 May 2026, the month-long review process of the NPT concluded. The 11th Rev Con failed to produce any consensus-based outcome document for the third time in a row.  Given the deep political and strategic divergences, this outcome is unsurprising. In fact, it was expected.

The collapse of the strategic stability dialogue after the two initial meetings of the US–Russia working groups within eight months (from June 2021 to January 2022) was a death knell for any future conversation between the US and Russia on managing the global nuclear order as it had traditionally been managed. Further, the failure to renew the New START Treaty in February 2026 may be viewed as the final nail in the coffin.

If we step back 10 years, it is worth noting that the US–Russia Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement (PMDA), which was suspended in 2016, was the first in the series to be called off. This landmark agreement between the two countries, which hold the world’s largest inventory of nuclear weapons, had lasted for 16 years and effectively contributed to the disposal of tonnes of weapons-grade plutonium. This disposed plutonium was used to power civilian reactors to generate electricity.

What was significant was that PMDA made nuclear arms reduction irreversible, as the inherent non-proliferation guarantees ‘prevented the diversion of plutonium’ (received for conversion)........

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