As conflict returns to Ethiopia after a fragile peace of four years — a devastating civil war started in 2020 and ended only in 2022 after the Pretoria Agreement was signed in November 2022 — and threatens to widen, it is important to remember what is at stake here. One, Ethiopia is part of the Horn of Africa; its proximity to the Red Sea — one of the most important corridors for global maritime trade — means a wider conflict here can potentially disrupt global commerce further even as the Strait of Hormuz stalemate continues. And two, given the nature of the conflicts in the broader region, including parts of West Asia, the threat of deepening radicalisation can’t be completely eliminated.

Ethiopia is currently witnessing fighting in its Tigray province that borders Eritrea, renewed tensions in Amhara, and the formation of an extraordinary alliance of armed groups opposed to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. What makes the situation particularly dangerous is that the old battle lines have shifted, and regional alignments around Ethiopia have been redrawn.

The Pretoria Agreement, signed under the African Union (AU)’s auspices, provided a framework for ceasefire after the two-year civil war, but did not settle fundamental questions such as the status of Western Tigray, displacement........

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