Can we fix the Scottish gap?
The latest polling for the election next week is interesting. Survation’s figures for the constituency vote are SNP 35%, Reform and Labour both 20, Tories 13, Lib Dems 10 and Greens 1; in other words more divided than ever. But take a deeper look and the other thing the polls show is that there’s a gap between what people are thinking and what people are doing, and we should be worried about that I think, and we should be trying to work out how we can fix it.
The reason the figure for the Greens is so low by the way (if only it were lower you say?) is that the party is fielding just six constituency candidates. In voting intention for the regional list, they’re still low but steady at 11%, the same as they were in March. The SNP meanwhile have dropped three to 29, Reform’s on 19, Labour 17, the Conservatives 13 and the Lib Dems 8. Survation’s conclusion is that John Swinney’s only hope of a majority is that anti-Reform feeling translates into a tactical vote for the SNP, but there’s so much anti feeling around generally, it’s hard to call.
And take a quick look at the most recent polling from Ipsos and you’ll see that something else is going on as well, something more profound. The poll delves into our wider feelings about politics in general, the prospects for the next government and what people think of the leaders and it’s dim: none of the leaders are viewed positively and the best any of them can manage is a net favourability rating of -1, for John Swinney. Anas Sarwar of Labour is on -21, leaving Malcolm Offord in the pantomime baddie role at the bottom on -42. We dislike all of them but we dislike some of them less than others.
The really interesting bit, though, is what people say about politics in general. Basically,........
