It is that time of the year when agriculturists and agri-market participants in our country look skyward for signs of southwest monsoon onset. This year is no different. If anything, the monsoon seems to have entered the southern coast a few days ahead of the normal June 1.

The preliminary forecast of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) suggests the country will have a ‘normal’ monsoon, going up to 105 per cent of the long-period average of 87 centimetres with a model error of /-5 per cent.

The IMD is monitoring sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean. Any undue rise in temperatures can potentially cause weather aberrations. A more concrete monsoon forecast from the IMD is expected by the end of May.

The country is divided into 36 meteorological subdivisions. The IMD considers anything between 19 per cent and -19 per cent rainfall as normal. It is not the aggregate quantum of rainfall but the spatial and temporal distribution of rains from June to September that is crucial for Kharif crops.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Agriculture has fixed a production target of 168.88 million tonnes of Kharif crops for 2025-26. The major crops of the........

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