Middle East Policies

TANVI RATNA: How the war in Iran realigned Europe's energy future around America

IEEFA projects 80% of all EU LNG imports will flow from the U.S. by 2030, up from 24% before the Ukraine war

By Tanvi Ratna Fox News

Published May 30, 2026 8:47am EDT

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President Donald Trump is negotiating over the Strait of Hormuz this week. The Middle East will get the headlines. But one of the most consequential shifts in this war did not happen in Tehran or Tel Aviv. It happened in the gas terminals of Rotterdam, Wilhelmshaven and Dunkirk, where Europe’s post-Russia energy system has become increasingly American.

In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine and Europe woke up to its first great energy shock of the century. Roughly 40-45% of the continent’s gas imports came from the country that had just launched a land war on its doorstep. The promise that followed was sincere: never again. No single supplier. No pipeline dependence. Diversify, build, escape.

Iran seized two foreign oil tankers in the Persian Gulf on Thursday, allegedly carrying 1 million liters of smuggled fuel. (GIUSEPPE CACACE/AFP via Getty Images)

Europe delivered. Russian pipeline gas fell from 137 billion cubic meters in 2021 to just 18 billion cubic meters by 2025 — an 87% collapse. Russia's share of EU gas imports fell from 45% to 12%.

In December 2025, the European Parliament voted 500 to 120 to make the break permanent law — a full ban on Russian LNG by end-2026 and all Russian pipeline gas by late 2027, with €40 million penalties for circumvention.

RUSSIA’S GAS GAMBLE........

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