CFOs believe AI is paying off. Researchers aren’t so sure—yet

Good morning. AI is already making workers more productive, but the financial results haven’t yet caught up.

“Artificial Intelligence, Productivity, and the Workforce: Evidence from Corporate Executives” is a new working paper by researchers at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta. It finds that while CFOs report productivity gains from AI, revenue-based evidence tells a more measured story—for now.

Based on surveys of nearly 750 executives, the research identifies a “productivity paradox.” Companies reported AI-driven productivity gains averaging 1.8% in 2025, but when researchers calculated implied gains using actual revenue and employment data, those gains were much smaller across all major industries—in both 2025 and 2026, the report found.

“It’s not really hitting the top line yet in full force,” John Graham, a professor of finance at Duke’s Fuqua School of Business and a co-author of the study, told me. “There is some level of delay in here for sure.”

“It is possible that CFOs are just optimistic about all the potential,” Graham said. “By productivity, we explicitly ask output per employee.”

But he points primarily to timing. Companies that ramped up AI investment in late 2025 haven’t fully rolled out capabilities, adjusted pricing, or realized revenue gains. Reported 2025 gains closely match revenue-implied gains for 2026—suggesting a one-year lag.

The pattern mirrors the famous “productivity paradox” described by economist Robert Solow in 1987, who noted........

© Fortune