To justify a $1.5 trillion market cap after its IPO, SpaceX would need to earn more than Berkshire Hathaway. Here’s why that’s so unlikely

Reports are swirling that Elon Musk is planning an IPO for SpaceX this summer. Now that Musk’s merged the rocket enterprise with xAI, another pillar of his empire, he expects the combination to raise $50 billion in capital, and garner a market cap of $1.5 trillion. At those numbers, SpaceX would notch the biggest single IPO capital raise of all time, and also rank as second highest in total valuation to Saudi Aramco, and far ahead of second place Alibaba’s introduction in 2018 at $167 million.

Until SpaceX publishes its prospectus for the offering, we won’t have a detailed look at its financials. We do, however, have important snippets of information. Musk’s stated that SpaceX generated some $15 billion revenues last year, and it’s been widely reported that it booked roughly $8 billion in EBITDA. The scenario circulating widely in the media, and not refuted by Musk, shows a loss of $2.4 billion for the first 9 months of 2025.

These numbers don’t include interest and depreciation, the latter SpaceX’s outlays for plant and equipment. Knitting this limited view of the now-united businesses, it appears likely that the current SpaceX is showing zero or even negative........

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