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Shawn Tully

Shawn Tully

Fortune

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With bond yields surging to 4.7%, T-notes are looking like a better deal than the pricey S&P, says the Research Affiliates’ formula

Record stock prices, surging bond yields — Research Affiliates has surprising advice on where to invest for the next 10 years.

yesterday 10

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Forget tariffs and the Iran oil shock—a top economist says the Fed is blind to the real inflation threat

"We have an aggregate demand issue, not a supply disruption issue," says William Luther, an associate professor at Florida Atlantic University.

tuesday 10

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Boeing lost China. Trump—and 500 jets—may be about to win it back

Beijing hasn't ordered planes from Boeing since 2017. That could soon change.

14.05.2026 20

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Michael Burry, Paul Tudor Jones, and a Nobel-winner all see the same thing: A stock market reckoning

The last time Shiller's CAPE index soared to 40, the market took 12 years to recover.

13.05.2026 20

Fortune

Shawn Tully

‘I lost more money than anybody in the history of capitalism!’: Remembering Ted Turner

No one dreamed—or lost—bigger than maverick media mogul Ted Turner.

10.05.2026 20

Fortune

Shawn Tully

‘If he tells you he can beat me, I’ll sue!’: Inside the $9 billion friendship between the CEOs of Amex and Delta

Amex's Steve Squeri and Delta's Ed Bastian clicked so well that they are now buddies in pursuing both profit and fun.

09.05.2026 20

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Why GameStop’s bid for eBay echoes one of the worst business deals of all time

GameStop's play for eBay echoes the AOL-Time Warner deal in eerie detail—and that should terrify eBay's board.

09.05.2026 20

Fortune

Shawn Tully

The CEO who was told he’d never run American Express has made Amex cool again—and is beating JPMorgan, Visa, and the S&P 500

The unlikely story of how a Queens-born outsider turned around a giant by betting young people would happily pay $900 a year for a credit card.

06.05.2026 30

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Blackstone’s Steve Schwarzman built a program to teach young leaders about China. It’s harder to get into than Harvard

Inspired by the Rhodes Scholar program, Schwarzman's philanthropic initiative brings students in their early-to-mid-20s to spend a year immersed in...

02.05.2026 30

Fortune

Shawn Tully

The debt crisis Congress has been ignoring could cost the average U.S. household $18,000 a year, according to a Brookings analysis

Taxing the rich doesn't get remotely close to solving the debt crisis. So a solution will likely sweep across all income levels.

30.04.2026 30

Fortune

Shawn Tully

‘Take the money and run’: Johns Hopkins economist Steve Hanke on why the UAE quit OPEC

The move didn't surprise Hanke, who served on the UAE's Financial Advisory Council from 2008 to 2014.

29.04.2026 10

Fortune

Shawn Tully

According to Warren Buffett’s math the stock market is officially in ‘playing with fire’ territory. So when is the next crash coming?

According to Warren Buffett's math the stock market is officially in "playing with fire" territory.

25.04.2026 30

Fortune

Shawn Tully

How Spirit Airlines’ business model collapsed—and why a Trump bailout could make things worse

Covid, a failed merger, and now a spike in jet fuel prices have conspired to make Spirit's finances unworkable.

23.04.2026 30

Fortune

Shawn Tully

The housing affordability crisis isn’t just crushing millennials—it’s squeezing out buyers in their 40s, 50s and beyond too

"When purchasing power declines, fewer people buy homes at 28—but also fewer purchase at 38 or 48," writes the Housing Center's co-director Ed Pinto.

22.04.2026 20

Fortune

Shawn Tully

The one metric Warren Buffett says can crash the stock market just hit a dizzying new high

The "Buffett Indicator" has been a closely watched stock market valuation gauge ever since the legendary investor explained his reasoning in a 2001...

19.04.2026 30

Fortune

Shawn Tully

United CEO Scott Kirby and American CEO Robert Isom were once colleagues known as the ‘dream team.’ Now Kirby wants to acquire his rival

The dueling CEOs of United and American have a long history of circling each other in the industry.

18.04.2026 20

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Could United and American airlines really merge? 5 key questions about a blockbuster deal

Industry insiders told Fortune that a tie-up between the first and fourth largest U.S. carriers faces hurdles, but can't be ruled out.

17.04.2026 40

Fortune

Shawn Tully

The hidden menace behind Big Tech’s AI arms race: Meta, Amazon and others are spending billions on hardware that’s worthless in 3 years

The new industrial era may be a lot more beneficial to the folks and businesses that use the AI-enhanced products than the enterprises that furnish...

15.04.2026 30

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Most of Wall Street points to high oil prices as the driver of inflation. A maverick Johns Hopkins economist says they’re chasing the wrong culprit

The oil crisis will end with the war, it's the inflation predicament that has legs, predicts Steve Hanke of Johns Hopkins.

14.04.2026 20

Fortune

Shawn Tully

The ‘affordability economy’ has created a housing market nobody predicted: Prices collapsing in the Sun Belt, soaring in the Rust Belt

Las Vegas, Austin, and Miami are now leading a national price downturn, while metros like Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Milwaukee are finally having...

11.04.2026 20

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Why Trump’s 2027 budget could be the document that triggers a debt crisis

$7.8 trillion in extra revenue, GDP growing at 3%, vanishing deficits, and a 42% defense hike—to skeptics Trump’s math just isn’t adding up.

09.04.2026 20

Fortune

Shawn Tully

A J.P. Morgan analyst sees 60% downside to Tesla stock—and he may be too optimistic

Elon Musk's pivot from electric vehicle sales to self-driving taxis and robotics will clobber Tesla's earnings, and could crush its shares.

07.04.2026 10

Fortune

Shawn Tully

The ROAD Act passed by the Senate aims to expand America’s housing supply. It’s likely to shrink it instead

The ROAD Act aims to keep big investors out of the single family home rental market. Critics say that could kill investment in new homes, and drive up...

29.03.2026 20

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Some cried. Others were speechless. How front-line workers walked away with checks averaging $240,000 when KKR sold their company

They knew they were getting a payout. But employees at CoolIT had no idea just how much they'd profit from KKR's sale of their employer.

29.03.2026 10

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Social Security insolvency: How a ‘six figure cap’ to flatten benefits for the ultra-wealthy could buy the program 7 critical years

A nonpartisan think tank is proposing a fix that promises significant progress towards putting Social Security on a path to self-sufficiency.

26.03.2026 40

Fortune

Shawn Tully

‘Say thank you and get out’: Why one top strategist says to dump Magnificent 7 stocks now

Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates warns that AI hype has stretched growth stock valuations to a breaking point—and the next decade will look nothing...

19.03.2026 30

Fortune

Shawn Tully

S&P 500 will return just 3% a year for the next decade, top strategist warns

A $200 billion index fund strategist breaks down why U.S. large caps will deliver one-fifth the returns of the past decade—and which markets to own...

17.03.2026 40

Fortune

Shawn Tully

The $265 billion private credit meltdown: How Wall Street’s hottest investment craze turned into a panic

Inside the dramatic comedown for highflyers like Apollo, Ares, Blue Owl and KKR: "It resembles a run on a bank."

14.03.2026 50

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Trump’s Iran war could hike national debt by $65 billion in 60 days, while tariffs add another crushing blow

The Pentagon told lawmakers that they estimated the cost of the war exceeded $11.3 billion in the first 6 days of the conflict—and that didn't even...

12.03.2026 20

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Trump’s Iran war could hike national debt by $65 million in 60 days, while tariffs add another crushing blow

A Wharton analyst told Fortune that if the conflict rages for a total of two months, it will inflict net new expenses on U.S. taxpayers of $65...

12.03.2026 20

Fortune

Shawn Tully

How the Iran war’s nearly $1 billion-a-day price tag is deepening America’s debt crisis

Should the Iran war drag on for even several more weeks, the damage to America's fragile finances will prove substantial.

11.03.2026 30

Fortune

Shawn Tully

The toughest guy on Wall Street

From the archives.

10.03.2026 20

Fortune

Shawn Tully

To justify a $1.5 trillion market cap after its IPO, SpaceX would need to earn more than Berkshire Hathaway. Here’s why that’s so unlikely

The real moonshoot? Hitting the financial targets it would take to justify the market cap Elon Musk has been musing about.

08.03.2026 30

Fortune

Shawn Tully

The unexpected 92,000 drop in payrolls is a clue we might be reading the AI jobs narrative all wrong

Is AI taking jobs? Or are companies cutting jobs to pay for the enormous capex outlays on AI?

07.03.2026 30

Fortune

Shawn Tully

SpaceX is poised to raise more money in its IPO than was raised in last year’s 90 IPOs, combined

And that means Wall Street will make more money, too.

05.03.2026 30

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Ray Dalio, Scott Bessent and House members from both sides of the aisle are rallying around a ‘3% solution’ to tame the out of control national debt

Bipartisan consensus is building in support of lowering the gulf between revenues and outlays to 3% of GDP.

01.03.2026 40

Fortune

Shawn Tully

New Fed report proves Milton Friedman and Joe Biden understood something vital about immigration—and explains why growth may sputter under Trump

A new research paper found that the huge influx of foreigners under President Biden's open border policy had the beneficial role of increasing the...

22.02.2026 70

Fortune

Shawn Tully

New CBO report shows national debt spiraling into uncharted territory by 2035—and Trump’s tariff defeat will make the picture even worse

By 2035, the CBO expects the deficit to reach $2.96 trillion or 6.2% of GDP versus 5.8% today, and almost double the multi-decade, pre-pandemic...

21.02.2026 100

Fortune

Shawn Tully

When Bitcoin prices turned against Michael Saylor, he quietly pivoted to risky financial gambit at Strategy

Saylor has been offseting the Bitcoin drag by reverting to different and dangerous scheme: Issuing tons of preferred stock.

20.02.2026 60

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Inside the radical revamp of Social Security where a Wall Street CEO is changing almost everything at the $1.6 trillion benefits agency

Frank Bisignano’s quick work at the SSA elicited ‘disbelief’ from Senator Elizabeth Warren, but an audit proved he’s hitting the mark.

07.02.2026 20

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Kevin Warsh will inherit a challenge no Fed chief has faced since post-World War II regarding the spiraling $31 trillion national debt

Debt and deficits will put Kevin Warsh under great pressure to keep interest rates low and rely on short term borrowing. But long term that will have...

31.01.2026 20

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Remove Tesla’s non-repeatable profits, and the stock has never been more expensive—now boasting a ‘core’ PE of 632

After subtracting the sale of credits and digital assets, Tesla booked just $2.28 billion in "bedrock," repeatable earnings.

30.01.2026 20

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Fed favorite Rick Rieder manages a $2.4 trillion BlackRock portfolio—and knows more about the bond market than anyone in America

As he eyes the next Fed Chair, nothing's a bigger deal in Trump's policy decisions than what makes the bond market thrive or tank.

28.01.2026 20

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Trump’s own Big Beautiful Bill could add $5.5 trillion to the deficit and help sabotage his plan to ‘grow out’ of the national debt crisis

Prior to the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill, Trump’s “growth” math stood a chance of closing the gap. Now it’s much harder to see it working.

27.01.2026 30

Fortune

Shawn Tully

The U.S. debt now equals $229,000 per household—and a hefty tax hike looms as the most probable outcome

Spiraling interest payments—which grew from $352 billion in 2021 to $970 billion in 2025—put the debt train on an accelerated track.

21.01.2026 30

Fortune

Shawn Tully

America’s $952 billion annual burden: Exploding interest on national debt is set to surpass Medicare spending within the decade

The staggering math behind the rapid rise in interest due on our outsize debt.

15.01.2026 20

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Buying a home is 150% more expensive than in 2019. But here’s why Trump’s plan to shut out institutional investors could raise costs even more

“Big investors have nothing to do with how the housing shortage got created,” says Ed Pinto, a leading housing expert.

13.01.2026 40

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Elon Musk has started work toward his $1 trillion Tesla pay package. But 2 loopholes foreshadow how it could be a bust for shareholders

Musk's comp package incentivizes him to hype the stock, then deliver just enough on the basic business end to clinch a rich reward.

29.11.2025 40

Fortune

Shawn Tully

AI rivals like OpenAI, Nvidia, and Oracle are collaborating to build ‘Stargate’—but a Yale expert says it violates 135 years of antitrust law

Six AI leaders are uniting to form a single company. How is this possibly legal, asks Madhavi Singh of Yale’s Thurman Arnold Project, an initiative...

23.11.2025 40

Fortune

Shawn Tully

The 30-year-old obsessive networker who is dominating a wildly profitable niche on Wall Street known as ‘directs’

Matt Swain has become a pioneer by pairing family offices looking to triple their money with under-the-radar businesses looking to exit.

01.11.2025 30

Fortune

Shawn Tully