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Shawn Tully

Shawn Tully

Fortune

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‘Say thank you and get out’: Why one top strategist says to dump Magnificent 7 stocks now

Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates warns that AI hype has stretched growth stock valuations to a breaking point—and the next decade will look nothing...

previous day 10

Fortune

Shawn Tully

S&P 500 will return just 3% a year for the next decade, top strategist warns

A $200 billion index fund strategist breaks down why U.S. large caps will deliver one-fifth the returns of the past decade—and which markets to own...

17.03.2026 10

Fortune

Shawn Tully

The $265 billion private credit meltdown: How Wall Street’s hottest investment craze turned into a panic

Inside the dramatic comedown for highflyers like Apollo, Ares, Blue Owl and KKR: "It resembles a run on a bank."

14.03.2026 10

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Trump’s Iran war could hike national debt by $65 billion in 60 days, while tariffs add another crushing blow

The Pentagon told lawmakers that they estimated the cost of the war exceeded $11.3 billion in the first 6 days of the conflict—and that didn't even...

12.03.2026 4

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Trump’s Iran war could hike national debt by $65 million in 60 days, while tariffs add another crushing blow

A Wharton analyst told Fortune that if the conflict rages for a total of two months, it will inflict net new expenses on U.S. taxpayers of $65...

12.03.2026 5

Fortune

Shawn Tully

How the Iran war’s nearly $1 billion-a-day price tag is deepening America’s debt crisis

Should the Iran war drag on for even several more weeks, the damage to America's fragile finances will prove substantial.

11.03.2026 5

Fortune

Shawn Tully

The toughest guy on Wall Street

From the archives.

10.03.2026 1

Fortune

Shawn Tully

To justify a $1.5 trillion market cap after its IPO, SpaceX would need to earn more than Berkshire Hathaway. Here’s why that’s so unlikely

The real moonshoot? Hitting the financial targets it would take to justify the market cap Elon Musk has been musing about.

08.03.2026 3

Fortune

Shawn Tully

The unexpected 92,000 drop in payrolls is a clue we might be reading the AI jobs narrative all wrong

Is AI taking jobs? Or are companies cutting jobs to pay for the enormous capex outlays on AI?

07.03.2026 10

Fortune

Shawn Tully

SpaceX is poised to raise more money in its IPO than was raised in last year’s 90 IPOs, combined

And that means Wall Street will make more money, too.

05.03.2026 10

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Ray Dalio, Scott Bessent and House members from both sides of the aisle are rallying around a ‘3% solution’ to tame the out of control national debt

Bipartisan consensus is building in support of lowering the gulf between revenues and outlays to 3% of GDP.

01.03.2026 10

Fortune

Shawn Tully

New Fed report proves Milton Friedman and Joe Biden understood something vital about immigration—and explains why growth may sputter under Trump

A new research paper found that the huge influx of foreigners under President Biden's open border policy had the beneficial role of increasing the...

22.02.2026 50

Fortune

Shawn Tully

New CBO report shows national debt spiraling into uncharted territory by 2035—and Trump’s tariff defeat will make the picture even worse

By 2035, the CBO expects the deficit to reach $2.96 trillion or 6.2% of GDP versus 5.8% today, and almost double the multi-decade, pre-pandemic...

21.02.2026 100

Fortune

Shawn Tully

When Bitcoin prices turned against Michael Saylor, he quietly pivoted to risky financial gambit at Strategy

Saylor has been offseting the Bitcoin drag by reverting to different and dangerous scheme: Issuing tons of preferred stock.

20.02.2026 40

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Inside the radical revamp of Social Security where a Wall Street CEO is changing almost everything at the $1.6 trillion benefits agency

Frank Bisignano’s quick work at the SSA elicited ‘disbelief’ from Senator Elizabeth Warren, but an audit proved he’s hitting the mark.

07.02.2026 7

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Kevin Warsh will inherit a challenge no Fed chief has faced since post-World War II regarding the spiraling $31 trillion national debt

Debt and deficits will put Kevin Warsh under great pressure to keep interest rates low and rely on short term borrowing. But long term that will have...

31.01.2026 5

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Remove Tesla’s non-repeatable profits, and the stock has never been more expensive—now boasting a ‘core’ PE of 632

After subtracting the sale of credits and digital assets, Tesla booked just $2.28 billion in "bedrock," repeatable earnings.

30.01.2026 9

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Fed favorite Rick Rieder manages a $2.4 trillion BlackRock portfolio—and knows more about the bond market than anyone in America

As he eyes the next Fed Chair, nothing's a bigger deal in Trump's policy decisions than what makes the bond market thrive or tank.

28.01.2026 7

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Trump’s own Big Beautiful Bill could add $5.5 trillion to the deficit and help sabotage his plan to ‘grow out’ of the national debt crisis

Prior to the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill, Trump’s “growth” math stood a chance of closing the gap. Now it’s much harder to see it working.

27.01.2026 10

Fortune

Shawn Tully

The U.S. debt now equals $229,000 per household—and a hefty tax hike looms as the most probable outcome

Spiraling interest payments—which grew from $352 billion in 2021 to $970 billion in 2025—put the debt train on an accelerated track.

21.01.2026 20

Fortune

Shawn Tully

America’s $952 billion annual burden: Exploding interest on national debt is set to surpass Medicare spending within the decade

The staggering math behind the rapid rise in interest due on our outsize debt.

15.01.2026 9

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Buying a home is 150% more expensive than in 2019. But here’s why Trump’s plan to shut out institutional investors could raise costs even more

“Big investors have nothing to do with how the housing shortage got created,” says Ed Pinto, a leading housing expert.

13.01.2026 20

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Elon Musk has started work toward his $1 trillion Tesla pay package. But 2 loopholes foreshadow how it could be a bust for shareholders

Musk's comp package incentivizes him to hype the stock, then deliver just enough on the basic business end to clinch a rich reward.

29.11.2025 20

Fortune

Shawn Tully

AI rivals like OpenAI, Nvidia, and Oracle are collaborating to build ‘Stargate’—but a Yale expert says it violates 135 years of antitrust law

Six AI leaders are uniting to form a single company. How is this possibly legal, asks Madhavi Singh of Yale’s Thurman Arnold Project, an initiative...

23.11.2025 20

Fortune

Shawn Tully

The 30-year-old obsessive networker who is dominating a wildly profitable niche on Wall Street known as ‘directs’

Matt Swain has become a pioneer by pairing family offices looking to triple their money with under-the-radar businesses looking to exit.

01.11.2025 10

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Tesla posts weak earnings again, and the ‘Musk Magic’ Premium shows its shares are way overpriced

By Fortune's calculations, investors' belief in Elon Musk's vision accounts for 90% of market value—a whopping $1.35 trillion.

23.10.2025 8

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Wells Fargo was reeling from scandal. Jamie Dimon protégé Charlie Scharf bet his career on saving the 173-year-old bank

Regulators were circling. The stock was sinking. This is the inside story of how Scharf took the toughest job on Wall Street, and got a legendary...

09.10.2025 7

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Inside the Trump team’s secret talks to rescue Argentina—with the help of the ‘Money Doctor’ who wants to stop the ‘pink tide’ sweeping Latin America

Johns Hopkins professor Steve Hanke is an expert on "dollarization" and has helped the Trump Administration run through the options for intervening in...

08.10.2025 20

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Stephen Miran, who Trump nominated to undermine Fed independence, once wrote a scathing critique of how the Fed wasn’t independent enough

In naming Miran to the Fed’s seven-member board, President Trump has ignited a firestorm over mixing politics with economic policy.

25.09.2025 20

Fortune

Shawn Tully

It’s been a surprisingly excellent run for stocks. That’s exactly what has market watchers on edge

From these heights, the chance for big returns going forward are low, and the risks of a sharp "reversion to the mean" downdraft is far more likely.

23.09.2025 10

Fortune

Shawn Tully

American Express’s CEO unveils a big upgrade to its $895 Platinum Card—and explains how he’s targeting Gen Z and Millennials

Together, those younger generations account for 35% of all U.S. consumer spending for Amex, up from 19% in 2019.

18.09.2025 20

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Elon Musk delivered on Tesla’s ‘mission impossible’ goals before—but the targets for his $1 trillion pay package are even more delusional

Musk’s new comp plan sets 12 goals for Tesla’s market cap, starting at $2 trillion and eventually rising to an incredible $8.5 trillion.

06.09.2025 20

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Nvidia is facing its biggest challenge yet: The law of large numbers

Nvidia is a fast-growing and highly profitable enterprise. But that may not be enough to reward investors from here.

30.08.2025 10

Fortune

Shawn Tully

The S&P 500 officially notches a new record over 6,500—but investors shouldn’t get too giddy

History has shown that when stock valuations rise this far into the stratosphere, they eventually come back to earth.

29.08.2025 7

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Why KDP’s CEO decided to forge a coffee colossus with the $18 billion acquisition of Peet’s—then spin it off and separate the soda business

Despite investors' initial harsh reaction, Tim Cofer's big strategic shift makes sense for KDP.

26.08.2025 9

Fortune

Shawn Tully

How investors should be thinking as the stock market nears a P/E ratio of 30—a number that spelled disaster before the dotcom crash

What’s especially troubling is the way the multiple reached its current heights. The main driver wasn’t what matters most: rising profits.

16.08.2025 20

Fortune

Shawn Tully

What to know about Stephen Miran, the tariff proponent Trump just nominated to join the Fed’s board of governors

Miran is a rarity, a highly trained economist who makes a logical-sounding case for Trump’s stunningly contrarian game plan.

08.08.2025 20

Fortune

Shawn Tully

A bright spot for Tesla shareholders: Under Elon Musk’s new $27 billion comp package, their fate is now intertwined with his

If shareholders suffer over the next five years, so will Musk.

06.08.2025 9

Fortune

Shawn Tully

How Boeing is quietly betting on a ‘brilliant’ 39-year old engineer—and setting the stage for a turnaround

Brian Yutko wowed his peers at MIT and his colleagues at flying-taxi startup Wisk. But can he help rebuild new product leadership at Boeing?

02.08.2025 20

Fortune

Shawn Tully

The investment chief at $10 trillion giant Vanguard says it’s time to pivot away from U.S. stocks

Huge recent gains will likely mean lower future returns, says Vanguard's Greg Davis; bonds and foreign stocks will do better.

01.08.2025 10

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Tesla’s stock fell 8% after its poor Q2 report, but the ‘Musk Magic’ premium is still sky-high

Tesla's market cap fell below $1 trillion, but it still reflects investors' assumptions of enormous future growth.

25.07.2025 20

Fortune

Shawn Tully

American Express hints at a big upgrade to its Platinum card, designed to lure a lucrative and fast-growing segment of customers

Cardholders between their 20s and 40s make up 75% of Amex's new accounts acquired on its two premium cards, Platinum and Gold.

16.06.2025 9

Fortune

Shawn Tully

How Keurig Dr Pepper CEO Tim Cofer secured one of the biggest coups of his career, a $1.65 billion deal for an energy drink giant

Cofer had his eye on GHOST—but had to convince co-founder Dan Lourenco to sell.

11.06.2025 9

Fortune

Shawn Tully

The Circle IPO delivered the biggest two-day ‘pop’ since 1980—but the crypto company left $3 billion on the table

We're witnessing the confluence of crypto craziness and Wall Street's genius for underpricing IPOs.

10.06.2025 10

Fortune

Shawn Tully

One entrepreneur’s supply-chain odyssey shows just how difficult it is to quit China

“All roads lead back to China,” declares Dealmed CEO Michael Einhorn of his company’s journey to remake its supply chain.

08.06.2025 10

Fortune

Shawn Tully

What Elon Musk’s feud with Trump means for Tesla shareholders

Could Musk be fired? Will he get his pay package approved? Will Tesla be punished? Shareholders are in for a bumpy ride as the Trump bromance ends.

07.06.2025 10

Fortune

Shawn Tully

Circle IPO leaves $1.72 billion on the table, seventh biggest underpricing in decades

While Wall Street insiders enjoyed a first day "pop," it appears Circle could have pocketed much more from its debut.

06.06.2025 10

Fortune

Shawn Tully

The CEO giving Keurig Dr Pepper a massive energy jolt

Tim Cofer has helped power Dr Pepper past Pepsi and is building the industry’s most aggressive, creative player.

02.06.2025 10

Fortune

Shawn Tully

How Stephen Miran—a Harvard-trained former free market champion—became Trump’s top ideologue on tariffs

Last year Miran, 41, was a virtual unknown. Suddenly the "Mar-a Lago accord" author’s ideas are reshaping the economy.

29.05.2025 10

Fortune

Shawn Tully

A new book makes the case for putting money supply at the center of the U.S. economy and re-empowering commercial banks

“Making Money Work” argues that policymakers should once again make banks the centerpiece of the financial ecosystem.

23.05.2025 7

Fortune

Shawn Tully