Americans say the economy is bad but keep spending. Don’t mistake the midterm polls for a forecast

Kari Butcher is Burson's Americas Chair, Insights, Data, and Intelligence. She previously held senior positions at BCW Global, Edelman DXI and ID Media Partners, among others.

Consumer confidence is at its lowest level since 2014, yet spending rose in August. Kari Butcher, Burson’s Chair for Intelligence & Insights for the Americas, argues that business leaders make the same mistake with election polls: treating what people say as a prediction of what they will do.

Business leaders are making consequential decisions based on a category error: treating what people say in a poll as a reliable forecast of what they will do next.

Consumer confidence falls, and a retailer cuts inventory. A majority supports a social issue, and a CEO assumes speaking out will strengthen customer loyalty. A company’s reputation score holds steady, and its leadership team concludes customers aren’t going anywhere. In every case, the poll may be accurate. The business conclusion can still be wrong.

Polls measure what people say at a particular moment. On their own, they cannot tell a leader how that sentiment will translate into purchases, loyalty, employee behavior or investor reaction. Get that distinction wrong, and a company can pull back while demand remains strong, enter a debate its customers did not ask it to join, or mistake the friction of switching for genuine........

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