War against Iran to escalate as we approach six-week ‘TACO’ timetable, analysts say

Good morning. On Fortune‘s radar today:

The S&P 500 is flirting with correction territory.

EXCLUSIVE: Don’t hold your breath for artificial general intelligence.

War in Iran is set to escalate.

New jobs number incoming.

Europeans increasingly decline to answer questions about their savings.

Oil rose above $115 again this morning. The S&P 500 is down 7% year-to-date, and down 9% from its most recent peak. S&P futures were up 0.45% this morning, but, obviously, U.S. stocks are within a point of going into an official correction. 

“The fog of war is getting thicker because of the likelihood of U.S. boots on the ground (the 'bog of war'),” Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research told clients over the weekend. “The S&P 500 is down 8.7% from its record high on January 27. It fell below its 200-day moving average last week. A 15% correction would take the index down to 5930.81. … No wonder investors went into fetal positions last week. The good news is that sentiment is getting very bearish, which is bullish from a contrarian perspective.”

Asia and Europe were down across the board this morning.

Keep an eye on the bond market: Prices have fallen, and yields have risen as investors got nervous about the effect of rising oil prices on the economy, Bloomberg reports.

Artificial General Hype: Why Jensen Huang's 'AGI' claim doesn't add up

Nvidia’s Jensen Huang said on a recent podcast that “We’ve achieved AGI,” meaning artificial general intelligence. But his definition of AGI was extremely limited: He was referring to an AI with the ability to start and grow a business to a valuation of $1 billion. In reality, the definition of artificial general intelligence is a hotly debated term in tech.

Most AI models have a “jagged” cognitive profile, Fortune’s Jeremy Khan writes. They may exceed most humans in some areas, like mathematics or factual recall, while dramatically trailing even average people in others, like learning from experience, maintaining long-term memories, or understanding social situations. 

When Microsoft agreed to invest $10 billion into OpenAI in 2023, its contract with OpenAI contained a clause that defined AGI as a technology that could generate at........

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