U.S. would only break Iranian ceasefire if there was ‘absolutely no alternative,’ says Deutsche Bank—this weekend was a warning shot

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S&P 500 futures are up 0.7%.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is down 0.28% in early trading and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 is up 0.76% before lunch.

Asia: South Korea’s KOSPI is up 2.55%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 is down 0.25%. India’s Nifty 50 is down 0.49%. China’s CSI 300 is up 5.3%. 

Brent crude is at $98 a barrel this morning.

Bitcoin is at $77,089.  

A year ago, U.S. strikes against Iran would have had analysts running for the hills. In 2026, they’re barely raising an eyebrow. 

On Monday, the U.S. military carried out action near the Strait of Hormuz, claiming self-defense rather than signaling an end to the ceasefire. In response, NBC News reported Iran’s Revolutionary Guard vowed today to “respond decisively to any violation of the ceasefire.”

Despite the potential knock to negotiations, economists remained relatively sanguine this morning. ”The market looks minded to continue pricing de-escalation in the Middle East – notwithstanding some occasional surgical strikes from the U.S.,” wrote ING’s Chris Turner. 

“Net net, optimism is still elevated that an agreement can be made to end the war,” chimed Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid to clients this morning. “We have been here before, of course, but it has felt for some time that the move towards peace has been three steps forward and one or two back … my view for a while has been that such a prolonged truce and ceasefire would not have held if the U.S. genuinely wanted to continue strikes, unless there was absolutely no alternative. 

“Last night's targeted action is clearly a warning shot that the ceasefire is fragile though, so we will have to see what the next few days of negotiations bring.”

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