Ray Dalio thinks the world looks like ‘pre-1945 times’ as we near the end of his ‘Big Cycle’

In today’s CEO Daily: The Bridgewater founder describes a more unstable world order in a piece for Fortune

The big leadership story: Palantir CEO Alex Karp says, don’t worry, the DoD isn’t using AI for mass domestic surveillance

The markets: Mildly positive across Asia as oil passes $100/barrel

Plus: All the news and watercooler chat from Fortune.

Good morning. How will AI impact Ray Dalio’s prognosis for the economy? The Bridgewater founder published a piece in Fortune this weekend, in which he argues that we are in stage 5 of what he calls the “Big Cycle.” (The global macro investor has studied the six stages of how major empires rise and fall, with stage 5 being the period prior to collapse.)

Dalio writes that “it is indisputably clear that what is happening now is more analogous to pre-1945 times than the post-1945 times that we have gotten used to, which misleads most people’s expectations and causes them to be shocked about what’s happening.”

Among the hallmarks of stage 5:

 “Large and rapidly rising government debts and geopolitical conflicts that lead to concerns about the value of and security of money, especially of the reserve currency, which drives a movement out of fiat currencies and into gold.” (Gold prices are up 70% over the past year.)

 “Large income, wealth, and values gaps within countries that lead to the rise of populism of the right and populism of the left and irreconcilable differences........

© Fortune