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The Persian Gulf states’ policies and the assumptions that underpin them are being stress-tested as never before. Having pressured the United States not to strike Iran, they now find themselves under daily attack by Tehran’s missiles and drones. The perception of the Gulf states as an oasis of quiet stability—a product of their own careful design—has been shattered.

Commentators remain divided as to what will change first: Will the Gulf states abandon their dependence on the United States or their prolonged campaign to bring Iran from the cold through dialogue? Either way, there is growing consensus inside and outside the region that this conflict will cause Gulf leaders to “rethink everything.”

The Persian Gulf states’ policies and the assumptions that underpin them are being stress-tested as never before. Having pressured the United States not to strike Iran, they now find themselves under daily attack by Tehran’s missiles and drones. The perception of the Gulf states as an oasis of quiet stability—a product of their own careful design—has been shattered.

Commentators remain divided as to what will change first: Will the Gulf states abandon their dependence on the United States or their prolonged campaign to bring Iran from the cold through dialogue? Either way, there is growing consensus inside and outside the region that this conflict will cause Gulf leaders to “rethink everything.”

The Gulf states are indeed under unprecedented strain. But despite this, they are unlikely to fundamentally shift their grand strategies in response to the war. Instead, they will continue to deepen their security partnership with the United States while maintaining some form of engagement with Iran.

Predictably, the war has left many in the region questioning the Gulf states’ reliance on Washington. It has reinforced a feeling that they remain second-tier U.S. allies when compared to Israel. Worse still, if the U.S. bases positioned throughout the region were supposed to deter attacks on the Gulf, they now seem to have had the opposite effect.

However, disputes between the United States and its Gulf partners over how to handle Iran are nothing new. Most of the Gulf states opposed the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq because they feared that Iran would exploit the chaos. The Gulf........

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