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Ongoing reports and analysis

So far, the Iran war has cost the United States 800 casualties, tens of billions of dollars, hundreds of damaged or destroyed buildings on U.S. military bases in the region, and a drawdown of munitions that is straining supplies. Fuel prices have risen sharply since the start of the war, pushing U.S. inflation to a level last seen in 2023. According to polls, most Americans do not believe there was “sufficient reason” for the United States to attack Iran, and public opposition to the war has increased over time. And there is little sign that the fighting is coming to a close. As of now, the Iranian regime seems disinclined to cease its attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, stop its regional proxies from attacking elsewhere, or curb its nuclear program.

What should the United States do now?

So far, the Iran war has cost the United States 800 casualties, tens of billions of dollars, hundreds of damaged or destroyed buildings on U.S. military bases in the region, and a drawdown of munitions that is straining supplies. Fuel prices have risen sharply since the start of the war, pushing U.S. inflation to a level last seen in 2023. According to polls, most Americans do not believe there was “sufficient reason” for the United States to attack Iran, and public opposition to the war has increased over time. And there is little sign that the fighting is coming to a close. As of now, the Iranian regime seems disinclined to cease its attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, stop its regional proxies from attacking elsewhere, or curb its nuclear program.

What should the United States do now?

In broad strokes, there are three options. First, ramp the war back up. Some—including U.S. President Donald Trump—have floated the idea of returning to a full-scale bombing campaign similar to what we saw during the conflict’s initial phase. Others have proposed escalating the war, for example by using ground forces to seize Iranian territory.

At the other end of the spectrum lies a second option: The United States could walk away from the conflict. Even Republican supporters of the Trump administration have increasingly called for an end to the war.

The third option is to stay the current course: Maintain the blockade and economic pressure campaign, respond with force when Iran or its proxies strike U.S. or partner targets, and push for negotiations that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the Iranian nuclear program. Of the three options, this may be the least satisfying; it almost certainly will not bring quick results. But it is........

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