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Even with a fragile cease-fire mostly holding and talks between the parties scheduled to resume, the immediate cost of the war in Iran are already apparent. Oil and gas prices have risen sharply. The International Monetary Fund is warning of a possible global recession. Iran’s military has been decimated, alongside vast material damage and loss of civilian lives. Tehran has discovered new ways to hold vital energy flows at risk. The United States has suffered 13 service member fatalities as well as more than 380 casualties and depleted military stocks. President Donald Trump’s popularity has declined.

These near-term results are all significant. But in the long run, they may turn out to pale compared to the long-term strategic aftershocks that will result from this conflict. Wars can be critical junctures in history—geopolitical earthquakes that accelerate global shifts, create new realities, and reverberate long after the fighting ends. The Iran war is precisely such an earthquake, and the United States and the world will be living with its strategic consequences for years to come.

Even with a fragile cease-fire mostly holding and talks between the parties scheduled to resume, the immediate cost of the war in Iran are already apparent. Oil and gas prices have risen sharply. The International Monetary Fund is warning of a possible global recession. Iran’s military has been decimated, alongside vast material damage and loss of civilian lives. Tehran has discovered new ways to hold vital energy flows at risk. The United States has suffered 13 service member fatalities as well as more than 380 casualties and depleted military stocks. President Donald Trump’s popularity has declined.

These near-term results are all significant. But in the long run, they may turn out to pale compared to the long-term strategic aftershocks that will result from this conflict. Wars can be critical junctures in history—geopolitical earthquakes that accelerate global shifts, create new realities, and reverberate long after the fighting ends. The Iran war is precisely such an earthquake, and the United States and the world will be living with its strategic consequences for years to come.

The Iran war delivered a potentially fatal blow to a U.S.-led international order that was already on life support. The United States is now........

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