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Saudi Arabia is in serious trouble. Its global influence primarily comes from its leading position as an oil producer and the money resulting from that role, but now the Middle East is on fire. Today, Saudi tankers are blocked in the Persian Gulf and under threat in the Red Sea, and the country’s biggest oil pipeline had to shut down after a drone attack. Yet Saudi Arabia’s biggest long-term problem may be that its longtime security guarantor, the United States, is unable to put out the fire and doesn’t seem especially interested in trying.

Since World War II and especially since the end of the Cold War, the Middle East has rested on a deal: U.S. military dominance provides relative stability, deterring and countering aggression, ensuring freedom of navigation, containing Iran, organizing air defense, and helping friendly governments to stay in power. In exchange, Saudi Arabia and the smaller Gulf Arab states—Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates—host U.S. bases, cooperate on counterterrorism, and maintain the smooth flow of oil. The clearest example of this working was in 1990-91, when a U.S.-led coalition prevented Iraq from taking any Saudi oil fields and pushed Iraqi forces out of Kuwait.

Saudi Arabia is in serious trouble. Its global influence primarily comes from its leading position as an oil producer and the money resulting from that role, but now the Middle East is on fire. Today, Saudi tankers are blocked in the Persian Gulf and under threat in the Red Sea, and the country’s biggest oil pipeline had to shut down after a drone attack. Yet Saudi Arabia’s biggest long-term problem may be that its longtime security guarantor, the United States, is unable to put out the fire and doesn’t seem especially interested in trying.

Since World War II and especially since the end of the Cold War, the Middle East has rested on a deal: U.S. military dominance provides relative stability, deterring and countering aggression, ensuring freedom of navigation, containing Iran, organizing air defense, and helping friendly governments to stay in power. In exchange, Saudi Arabia and the smaller Gulf Arab states—Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates—host U.S. bases, cooperate on counterterrorism, and maintain the smooth flow of oil. The clearest example of this working was in 1990-91, when a U.S.-led coalition prevented Iraq from taking any Saudi oil fields and pushed Iraqi forces out of Kuwait.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s attack on Iran broke that arrangement beyond repair, and Saudi Arabia doesn’t have a replacement.

The Saudi oil industry is under pressure from every direction. Much of its best oil fields and refineries are near the Gulf, where Iran is blocking exports via the Strait of Hormuz. But the Saudis had a contingency plan: the East-West pipeline, connecting the Gulf region to ports and........

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