January inevitably spawns a cottage industry of forecasts. Will the U.S. economy slip into recession? Will the stock market discover gravity? 2026 contains more than the usual share of genuine uncertainty.

But one question is likely to be resolved this year: the fate of Ukraine. And depending on which way things go, the consequences will not be incremental but rather seismic for the international system.

January inevitably spawns a cottage industry of forecasts. Will the U.S. economy slip into recession? Will the stock market discover gravity? 2026 contains more than the usual share of genuine uncertainty.

But one question is likely to be resolved this year: the fate of Ukraine. And depending on which way things go, the consequences will not be incremental but rather seismic for the international system.

The situation is grim. From the start of its second term, the Trump administration has followed a simple, if amoral plan: Pressure Ukraine to make concessions; package those concessions as the “realism” necessary for peace; then present them to Russian President Vladimir Putin in the hope that he will take a deal.

But when gifted a summit with President Donald Trump in Alaska that promised major concessions and left Ukraine out, Putin demanded more—more territory than he had already seized in his war of........

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