Foreign & Public Diplomacy

As the war with Iran blows up and cools down from week to week, one trend is clear: The biggest beneficiary of this conflict is China.

Beijing did not have to fire a shot, spend vast sums, or use up political capital. But it has gained more from this crisis than any in three decades. The war accelerated three of China’s long-held goals: a Middle East less dependent on America; a world more dependent on critical Chinese technology; and a reputation for Beijing as a serious and steady world power.

As the war with Iran blows up and cools down from week to week, one trend is clear: The biggest beneficiary of this conflict is China.

Beijing did not have to fire a shot, spend vast sums, or use up political capital. But it has gained more from this crisis than any in three decades. The war accelerated three of China’s long-held goals: a Middle East less dependent on America; a world more dependent on critical Chinese technology; and a reputation for Beijing as a serious and steady world power.

Beijing hasn’t tried to replace Washington as the Middle East’s military guarantor; that would require expensive commitments. Its aim has been simpler and more subtle: get Gulf states to detach somewhat from the American orbit. President Donald Trump is doing much of that work for Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

America’s Gulf allies have watched Washington wage this war in chaotic fashion and with little regard for the damage inflicted on its cities, infrastructure, and economies. The Persian Gulf is now dividing into two camps. The United Arab Emirates is drawing closer to Israel and Washington. But a larger group, led by Saudi Arabia and including Qatar, Oman, and perhaps Iraq and even Turkey, is likely to seek long-term security through a balance: continued ties with the United States, but also dialogue with Iran and better relations with China.

That........

© Foreign Policy