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Maybe the answer to the gut question “So how does this end?” in Iran is simple: It doesn’t. Not for a long while.

There will probably be some sort of ceasefire, maybe soon. Tanker traffic will resume through the Strait of Hormuz. Bombing by U.S. B-52s and B-2s will stop. Iran and its proxies will refrain from drone attacks across the Persian Gulf. Tehran may haggle over ceasefire conditions, but that won’t matter much because its military power has mostly been destroyed - at least for now.

Maybe the answer to the gut question “So how does this end?” in Iran is simple: It doesn’t. Not for a long while.

There will probably be some sort of ceasefire, maybe soon. Tanker traffic will resume through the Strait of Hormuz. Bombing by U.S. B-52s and B-2s will stop. Iran and its proxies will refrain from drone attacks across the Persian Gulf. Tehran may haggle over ceasefire conditions, but that won’t matter much because its military power has mostly been destroyed – at least for now.

President Donald Trump will declare victory, as he always does, even when he loses. He did so Wednesday, saying “We’ve won,” adding the caveat, “we’ve got to finish the job.” But this may be a “win” like the ones that Israel has declared for decades after wars that pounded its adversaries in Gaza and Lebanon. These military victories reflected an overwhelming advantage in firepower, but they didn’t vanquish the enemy.

If there’s one lesson America and Israel should have learned in recent decades, it’s that military success doesn’t usually translate to political victory – in Gaza, Afghanistan or, now, Iran. The adversary keeps coming back. The Israelis have learned that they have to keep “mowing the grass,” the harsh phrase they use for the cycle of recurring violence. America, after avoiding an all-out clash with Iran for 47 years, may now be caught in a similar cycle.

The Iran war will be a tactical triumph in the short run, and all the encomiums about America’s unmatched military power will remain true. If the conflict ends tomorrow, Iran will have lost nearly all its nuclear facilities and scientists, most of its missiles and missile........

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