This is supposed to be the most fateful election in Israel’s history—a vote on whether the country continues down the path of illiberalism, insularity, and aggressive military policies that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pursued over the past four years or whether it will return to its more liberal values and mend ties with a world that is increasingly shunning it.

Yet, for all that is at stake, the legislative election on Oct. 27 may not issue a clear decision on the country’s future. Even this late in the campaign, the polls show neither of the two major blocs winning outright. Netanyahu and his religious and far-right allies would capture no more than 49 seats, according to the latest polls. The gaggle of opposition parties united mainly in their desire to remove the prime minister from power would win no more than 54, far from the 61 needed for a parliamentary majority. The rest of the mandates would go mostly to two Arab-led parties, which could theoretically provide the anti-Netanyahu bloc with the margin it needs to govern, except that several members of that bloc have ruled out including these Arab-led parties in a future government.

This is supposed to be the most fateful election in Israel’s history—a vote on whether the country continues down the path of illiberalism, insularity, and aggressive military policies that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pursued over the past four years or whether it will return to its more liberal values and mend ties with a world that is increasingly shunning it.

Yet, for all that is at stake, the legislative election on Oct. 27 may not issue a clear decision on the country’s future. Even this late in the campaign, the polls show neither of the two major blocs winning outright. Netanyahu and his religious and far-right allies would capture no more than 49 seats, according to the latest polls. The gaggle of opposition parties united mainly in their desire to remove the prime minister from power would win no more than 54, far from the 61 needed for a parliamentary majority. The rest of the mandates would go mostly to two Arab-led parties, which could theoretically provide the anti-Netanyahu bloc with the margin it needs to govern, except that several members of that bloc have ruled out including these Arab-led parties in a future government.

Israeli polls don’t have a good record of predicting outcomes, for a number of reasons. Right-wing voters tend to distrust pollsters and don’t cooperate with them, so it is likely the surveys are underestimating Netanyahu’s strength. A big turnout by one side or the other, or by Arab voters, could change the final tallies. Most importantly, polls show two tiny........

© Foreign Policy