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Wars sometimes end decisively and sometimes peter out. In the case of the war that Israel has been fighting on multiple fronts since Oct. 7, 2023, there’s an argument to be made that it is now over—that it ended with the cease-fire signed between the United States and Iran on June 17. If so, this might be a moment for some accounting. How to evaluate these 984 days and assess what comes next?

Of course, the fighting isn’t fully over. Israeli troops still occupy a little over half of the Gaza Strip and stage regular attacks on the rest of the territory. In Lebanon, the army occupies a “security zone” that extends some 6 miles deep into the country and regularly exchanges fire with Hezbollah. Israel continues to occupy a large chunk of the Syrian territory it seized shortly after the collapse of the Assad regime in 2024. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would like to resume the war on Iran with or even without the United States and may try to create enough trouble in Lebanon to disrupt the U.S.-Iran talks.

Wars sometimes end decisively and sometimes peter out. In the case of the war that Israel has been fighting on multiple fronts since Oct. 7, 2023, there’s an argument to be made that it is now over—that it ended with the cease-fire signed between the United States and Iran on June 17. If so, this might be a moment for some accounting. How to evaluate these 984 days and assess what comes next?

Of course, the fighting isn’t fully over. Israeli troops still occupy a little over half of the Gaza Strip and stage regular attacks on the rest of the territory. In Lebanon, the army occupies a “security zone” that extends some 6 miles deep into the country and regularly exchanges fire with Hezbollah. Israel continues to occupy a large chunk of the Syrian territory it seized shortly after the collapse of the Assad regime in 2024. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would like to resume the war on Iran with or even without the United States and may try to create enough trouble in Lebanon to disrupt the U.S.-Iran talks.

Nevertheless, the odds of Netanyahu manipulating U.S. President Donald Trump back into a war are slim. The steady stream of threats Trump issued to bomb Iran into submission has long since ceased to be convincing; it is clear he wants to make a lasting deal, and so long as the Strait of Hormuz remains open, he’s willing to keep talking.........

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