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There is reason to believe that once the U.S. midterm elections have passed, President Donald Trump will escalate against Iran. Until now, the risk of surging energy prices has acted as a check on Trump’s behavior. In April, it forced him to retreat from open conflict and pursue a diplomatic solution. When the resulting Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) collapsed over disputed interpretations, Trump pivoted back toward economic pressure on Iran. But he has largely avoided more intense fighting in order to avoid provoking further domestic backlash over rising energy costs.

Now, the United States and Iran have settled into a battle of wills to see which side can endure more economic pain. Both Iran and the global economy are under significant duress. But both sides have avoided significantly escalatory steps, such as targeting energy infrastructure, buoyed by the belief that time is on their side.

There is reason to believe that once the U.S. midterm elections have passed, President Donald Trump will escalate against Iran. Until now, the risk of surging energy prices has acted as a check on Trump’s behavior. In April, it forced him to retreat from open conflict and pursue a diplomatic solution. When the resulting Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) collapsed over disputed interpretations, Trump pivoted back toward economic pressure on Iran. But he has largely avoided more intense fighting in order to avoid provoking further domestic backlash over rising energy costs.

Now, the United States and Iran have settled into a battle of wills to see which side can endure more economic pain. Both Iran and the global economy are under significant duress. But both sides have avoided significantly escalatory steps, such as targeting energy infrastructure, buoyed by the belief that time is on their side.

Trump, for his part, has repeatedly expressed confidence that Iran’s position will soften after the November midterms, implying that Tehran is trying to make him pay a political cost for the war before pivoting to make a deal. However, Trump’s prognostication may say more about his own thinking than Iran’s. After the midterms, he may decide that winning the Iran war is central to his legacy and that maintaining the status quo will not achieve his goals. Pressure from U.S. and Israeli hawks and Gulf partners to “finish the job,” coupled with growing fears over critical munition shortages, may also weigh in his calculation.

If Trump decides to escalate in pursuit of victory, he has a range of options, although........

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