WASHINGTON, DC - APRIL 02: U.S. President Donald Trump holds up a copy of a 2025 National Trade ... More Estimate Report as he speaks during a “Make America Wealthy Again” trade announcement event in the Rose Garden at the White House on April 2, 2025 in Washington, DC. Touting the event as “Liberation Day”, Trump is expected to announce additional tariffs targeting goods imported to the U.S. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

There’s a stark difference between recently positive economic news, and what forecasts, including President Donald Trump’s own suggestion, say about tariffs. April’s jobs report was strong, with a healthy 177,000 positions added and unemployment stable at 4.2%. Rather than sharply rising prices, we’ve seen some slight disinflation to March 2025. The stock market has rallied sharply off of April’s lows. This is good news and all implies a limited U.S. economic impact from tariffs for the initial months of 2025.

However, predictions for the U.S. economy remain generally pessimistic. Consumer surveys show declining confidence in the economy, according to research from the University of Michigan. Even Trump recently sounded a note of caution on tariffs. He suggested that children should cut back on dolls and pencils........

© Forbes