Oil prices don’t need to hit every American directly for a war in Iran to show up on the grocery receipt. The conflict is already reshaping the cost of fuel, fertilizer, and packaging—three inputs that quietly dictate what shoppers pay for everything from berries to canned soup.

As of the second week of March, global oil markets have already reacted to the widening conflict. London benchmark Brent crude has pushed past 100 dollars a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate sits near $99 and climbing. The Strait of Hormuz through which more than 20% of the world’s oil flows has seen tanker traffic halted or rerouted as shippers reassess risk in the wake of Iranian warnings and U.S.–Israeli strikes.

The analysts at the World Economic Forum estimate that a serious, prolonged constraint at Hormuz could take 8 to 10 million barrels per day off the market, a shortfall that could add roughly $20 a barrel to crude if conditions worsen. Historically, each 1‑dollar move in crude has translated into a $0.02 to $0.03 change at the pump, and current disruptions alone could push U.S. retail gasoline more than $0.10 per gallon higher in the near term. That matters for food because every truckload of produce, every refrigerated trailer of meat, and every pallet of beverages moves on diesel and gasoline.

Energy is also embedded in farm inputs and packaging. Higher oil and natural gas prices raise the cost of nitrogen fertilizer, crop protection chemicals, and the power needed to irrigate and process foods. Middle Eastern countries including Qatar and Saudi Arabia provide a significant share of urea, nitrogen and phosphate, key components of fertilizer used by U.S. farmers. Tariffs on steel and aluminum were already lifting the cost of cans and some bottling materials; now higher crude prices are putting additional pressure on plastic packaging and films derived from petrochemicals. The result is more expensive packaging in center‑store categories like canned vegetables, soups, and beverages, while higher fuel costs hit the fresh side of the store, from berries and lettuce to many of the foods in the refrigerated cases.

For those Forbes readers who love to indulge, there is more bad news. The Iran War is severely disrupting the caviar supply chain with cargo ships delayed in the Gulf and air freight grounded resulting in reduced availability and significantly higher global prices for premium Iranian caviar. While less than 1% of the caviar consumed in the US is actually imported from Iran, the global shortage may drive up the price of caviar in general. Approximately 60% of the caviar consumed in the US is imported from China.

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Middle East Conflict-Driven Inflation On Top Of Tariffs

The impact of the oil shock is landing on top of a trade policy that has already pushed higher costs into the food system.

On Feb. 24, the administration imposed a 10% global import surcharge under Section 122 of the Trade Act, applied to almost all imports for 150 days. The move followed a court decision narrowing the use of emergency powers for tariffs, but for retailers and CPG companies the practical effect is straightforward: virtually every imported ingredient, finished food, and piece of equipment is now subject to a broad new tax.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has warned that previous hikes in food and agriculture tariffs have already raised the cost of imported items and helped fuel higher prices at the grocery store and in restaurants. In one analysis, the Chamber calculated that elevated food and ag tariffs over just four months of 2025 produced a 647% increase in tariff collections on those products versus 2024, with the burden ultimately borne by consumers. A recent report from the Center for American Progress estimates that, compared with a no‑tariff scenario, American shoppers are paying up to 12% more for coffee, tea, cocoa, fish, seafood, fruits, and meat due to tariffs.

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The new blanket 10% duty sits on top of existing tariffs on steel, aluminum, equipment, and a range of manufactured goods. Those earlier measures had already raised the cost of cans, bottles, and machinery, and now, as oil prices rise as a result of the Iran War, plastic packaging becomes more expensive.

U.S. Supermarkets Fear Being De‑Prioritized

For U.S. supermarkets and CPG investors, the biggest risk in this moment isn’t just paying more: it’s being de‑prioritized. When oil and tariffs shocks arrive at the same time, global suppliers have to choose where to allocate limited capacity, logistics, and working capital.

If the United States is perceived as a high‑volatility market where a single policy decision can erase margin overnight, then exporters in places like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and across Asia will gravitate toward buyers who offer steadier terms. The cost of the war and tariffs isn’t just reflected in higher prices at the shelf. It also shows up in reduced choice, slower innovation, and a global supplier base that increasingly believes it can succeed without the U.S. market at the center of its strategy.

Which Supermarket Categories Are Most Exposed?

Most food sold in U.S. supermarkets is still grown, raised, or processed domestically, but the categories that rely heavily on imports are where pressure will show up fastest and most visibly. Those are the center‑store and fresh‑perimeter SKUs that shape consumer sentiment about whether inflation is “back.”

Coffee, tea, cocoa and chocolate: The U.S. imports the overwhelming majority of these products, and tariff-linked data already shows double‑digit price impacts versus pre‑tariff trends. Expect more pressure as the global 10% duty applies across many origins and as freight and insurance premiums rise on disrupted trade lanes.

Tropical fruits and off‑season produce: Bananas, mangoes, pineapples, and counter‑seasonal berries and vegetables have already posted above‑trend price increases tied partly to tariffs. A higher fuel bill for reefers and container ships, especially if routes around the Middle East lengthen, only adds to landed cost.

Seafood: With significant volumes sourced from Asia and other overseas fisheries, seafood is seeing around an 8% tariff‑driven uplift above pre‑tariff baselines, and that’s before we even calculate fuel and cold‑chain costs increases.

Meat and poultry: While the U.S. is a major meat producer, tariffs have pushed meat prices roughly 5% above where they would be without the trade actions, and that’s before you factor in more expensive feed, fertilizer, and fuel.

From The Grocery Aisle To The Restaurant Table

The same pressures squeezing supermarkets are hitting restaurants even harder, which have less cushion to absorb them. While grocery chains can shift consumers toward private label, run promotions, or reconfigure shelf sets to manage margin, restaurants have fewer escape hatches. Menu prices are sticky, labor costs are fixed, and diners who feel the pinch have a simple alternative: eat at home. The James Beard Foundation’s 2026 Industry Report found that restaurants that raised prices more than 10% in 2025 were the most likely to report lower profits and sales.

The commodities most exposed to the Iran conflict and tariff regime are the same for supermarkets: seafood, produce, cooking oils, and coffee. They are also among the most menu-critical. A fine dining restaurant whose signature dish depends on imported fish, or a fast-casual chain that sources tropical ingredients, faces the same supply disruption as a grocery buyer, but with less purchasing leverage and less ability to substitute on the fly. Independent operators, who account for the majority of U.S. restaurants, typically carry only days of inventory and lack the hedging tools and long-term contracts that larger chains use to buffer against price spikes.

For restaurant operators, the compounding effect of oil shocks and tariffs arriving simultaneously means that the spring menu reprint may also be a price reprint. The National Restaurant Association has already flagged food-away-from-home inflation as a top concern for 2026. This new wave of cost pressure arrives before that trend has fully stabilized. Consumers who have already traded down from restaurants to grocery stores during previous inflation cycles may do so again.

How Is Gulfood In Dubai Managing?

When I was in Dubai delivering the keynote address at Gulfood in January, I expected to hear a lot about new flavors, formats, and wellness trends. Instead, a recurring theme from food manufacturers and brand owners across the UAE and the broader region was political risk—specifically, the risk of doing business with the United States in the current environment.

Many executives told me bluntly that they no longer feel they need the U.S. market to be successful. They see strong growth opportunities in Asia, Africa, and within the Gulf Cooperation Council, where trade rules and relationships feel more predictable, and where they don’t wake up wondering if a tweet or a new proclamation will suddenly add 10% or more to their landed cost. For them, the combination of global tariffs, fast‑shifting sanctions, and tough‑to‑read diplomatic signals adds up to a simple conclusion: why bet the business on a partner whose policies can change overnight? Frankly my takeaway from these discussions is that these companies and families have a much longer term view of the food world – everything from the crops being planted to meeting consumer trends.

This is not the traditional narrative that U.S. retailers are used to hearing. For years, the story has been that global brands need access to the American consumer to reach scale. But in Dubai, I met emerging and established players, especially in plant‑based, halal, and better‑for‑you categories, who are now prioritizing markets where they see more policy stability and less tariff volatility. That attitude should worry anyone involved in the food world.

The Food Bill Is Coming — And It Won’t Look Like A War Tax

American shoppers won’t see "Iran War Surcharge" printed on their grocery or restaurant receipts. What they will see is coffee that costs a little more, berries that are harder to find, and a can of soup that quietly jumped $0.30; increases that seem to arrive from nowhere but are being engineered by the collision of a Middle East conflict, sweeping new tariffs, and a global supplier base that is actively rethinking, whether it needs the American market at all. None of this is inevitable. But reversing it requires policy coherence that has been in short supply. The grocery aisle may turn out to be the most tangible place where most Americans feel the cost of decisions made in Washington and in the Strait of Hormuz…one shopping cart at a time.

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