A month into President Donald Trump’s second term in office, uncertainty is the overriding theme for many businesses. Major changes to how the U.S. does business with the rest of the world are causing many C-suites to quickly strategize scenarios they might not have expected. But one of the biggest issues has been announcements of tariffs on an unexpected array of countries with often-moved effective dates—something that will definitely impact many businesses, but it’s unclear how, at what kind of cost, and when.

In a media briefing last week to discuss the issue, EY Americas Operating Model Effectiveness Leader Al Paul said that many call these tariffs an “uncertainty tax.” It’s going to happen at some cost, and there’s no way for companies to avoid its effects. Regardless of how they will be enacted, the impact of tariffs will also ripple across full supply chains. Going through cash to mitigate the initial financial impact and renegotiating existing supplier agreements are obvious impacts. But what about reprogramming ERP systems to reflect the new tariffs? Or tax changes that may be different in the U.S. and other countries? There’s always the option of changing manufacturing or supply origin countries or strategies, but what about existing infrastructure? Labor costs? Exit penalties to pay to foreign governments that might depend on you as an employer?

Trump used tariffs to punish perceived threats and work to reshore production in his first term, but the impacts weren’t as profound as they could have been. Sameer Anand, EY-Parthenon Americas supply chain leader, said that many companies moved production capacity to countries that weren’t affected—though most of it didn’t come to the U.S. And consumer prices did increase, but imports did not decline. Anand broke down what’s different now.

“It’s not just tariffs,” Anand said. “On top of it is the geopolitical volatility. On top of it, it is the immigration action. On top of it, it is the energy policy. On top of it, it’s the fiscal policy.”

In this uncertain period, Martin Fiore, EY Americas deputy vice chair of Tax, said that companies should be performing rapid assessments to understand the current state of tariffs and areas that might soon be impacted. Quick scenario planning and evaluating the supply chain to mitigate any immediate impacts. Looking at how the entire company’s supply chain works is also helpful.

Lynlee Brown, a partner in global trade for EY, said that as uncertain as the immediate future is, the new tariffs could be seen as an opportunity to rethink how to best do business.

“Regardless of how long these tariffs stay in effect, you’re going to have the nuts and bolts, but you’re going to have the brilliance of the ideas to say, I bet we see businesses doing business differently. And this can be that impetus,” Brown said.

Leadership matters in all kinds of business situations, and Bic CEO Gonzalve Bich spent the last seven years leading a broad turnaround at the iconic company his grandfather started more than 80 years ago. In December, he announced he’s stepping down later this year. I talked to him about the business and his career. An excerpt from our conversation is later in this newsletter.

Employees work at Apple's R&D facility in Austin, Texas.

In the last week, Apple charged forward in the AI space, announcing a $500 billion investment in infrastructure over the next four years and a lower-cost iPhone with AI capabilities that hits the market on Friday.

The $500 billion investment, CEO Tim Cook announced this morning in a press release, will build a new factory in Houston to manufacture AI servers for its Apple Intelligence platform. It will also create an academy in Michigan to train manufacturers; add to existing data center capacity in North Carolina, Iowa, Oregon, Arizona and Nevada; and grow R&D to support areas including silicon engineering. Apple estimates these expansions will create 20,000 new jobs. The funding also includes a “multibillion-dollar commitment” toward TSMC’s new manufacturing facility in Arizona.

Apple says its new iPhone 16e will deliver fast performance, long battery life and a chip that works with the company’s newly launched Apple Intelligence platform. Pricing will start at $599, $200 less than the current baseline iPhone 16 model. Apple’s iPhone sales have fizzled in recent quarters, falling $2 billion short of Wall Street expectations in the most recent quarter. Other areas of the tech giant’s business made up for the phone losses, but this new device could boost the segment’s sales.

Customers shop at a Chicago Walmart.

Walmart may be the world’s biggest retailer, but it’s prepared to take a beating in 2025 due to tariffs. While the retailer reported 4.1% revenue growth in its

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