This has been a dangerous month to be an oil refinery. On Monday night a fire hit Valero Energy’s 435,000 barrel-per-day refinery in Port Arthur, Texas. The refinery, 90 miles east of Houston, has been ramping up purchases of heavy crude from Venezuela. Despite a dramatic fireball there were no serious injuries and damage appears limited to a diesel processing unit.

Meanwhile, Russia’s giant oil export facility at Primorsk on the Baltic Sea, wasn’t so lucky and continued to burn two days after a Ukrainian attack Sunday. Other smoldering oil and gas plants include Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura, hit by Iranian drones on March 2, and Tehran’s biggest refinery, hit by Israelis on March 7. Then on March 19 more attacks hit the Saudis’ refinery at Yanbu, on the Red Sea, and Israel’s refinery in Haifa, causing minor damage to both.

Then came the drone attacks last week on Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex, which knocked out plants operated by ExxonMobil and Shell responsible for some 20% of Qatari natural gas exports. QatarEnergy says that damage could take 5 years and $26 billion to repair.

Worst of all: Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is keeping upwards of 18 million barrels per day of oil, gas, fertilizer and other chemicals bottled up in the Gulf. Only a handful of the usual 100 ships per day have been making the crossing, though Iran reportedly said on Tuesday that vessels from “non hostile” countries would be allowed.

Biggest Energy Supply Shock Ever

How long can the world withstand such energy chaos? Not long, warn Jeff Currie and James Gutman at private equity giant Carlyle Group, in a new analysis. “The physical closure is without precedent,” and has the potential to be the biggest energy supply shock the world has ever seen. “The system simply cannot accommodate that kind of disruption,” they wrote this week.

Shortages of key products have emerged. Jet fuel for immediate delivery in Singapore........

© Forbes