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William Watson: The U.S.-Iran war by the numbers

The U.S. lost one person for every 1,000 sorties it flew against Iranian targets and its tolerance for POWs was zero. War is different now

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Two: Number of countries now blockading the Strait of Hormuz, versus zero on Feb. 27, the day before the U.S.-Israel-Iran war started. The second blockade (the American one) is conditional. If the first (the Iranian) stops, the second will, too, unless the two countries work out a deal for joint tolling of ships, as the U.S. president recently suggested might be possible.

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One: Number of American prisoners of war the U.S. could not tolerate, as demonstrated by its risking the lives of hundreds of other service people to rescue pilots downed in the Iranian mountains. Devotion of such resources and risk to saving just two lives is morale-boosting for U.S. warriors: we will not abandon you, it tells them. But can a country that puts such a high premium on casualties and captures really fight wars? Before instant world-wide communication came along pain thresholds were different.

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245:Number of Americans killed on the deadliest day of the Vietnam War, Jan. 31, 1968, at the height of the Communists’ Tet offensive.

2,415:Number of Americans killed in the deadliest month of the Vietnam War, May 1968.

2,500: Number of Americans killed on D-Day: June 6, 1944. A dramatic decline in the toleration of death — of one’s own soldiers, at least, though not necessarily of opponents’ — is probably a good thing.

13: Number of U.S. military personnel killed up to last Tuesday’s ceasefire, six in a mid-air refuelling accident, the rest in Iranian rocket and drone attacks.

13,000: Total number of U.S. sorties flown against Iran. How many sorties do you suppose the U.S. would need to wipe out our military? It attacked 10,000 separate Iranian targets. How many military targets do we have? Has there ever been a conflict in which the number of sorties was 1,000 times the number of casualties incurred making them? How about Pearl Harbor, Dec. 7, 1941, when the Japanese navy achieved complete surprise in its attempt to sink the U.S. Pacific fleet, which it almost succeeded in doing?

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29: Number of Japanese planes shot down at Pearl Harbor, which was roughly seven per cent of those involved in the attack.

129: Number of Japanese sailors and airmen killed at Pearl Harbor. (Number captured: one, the 23-year-old captain of a midget submarine).

2,403: Total American deaths at Pearl Harbor, military and civilian.

55,573: Number of British Bomber Command crewmen killed during strategic bombing of Germany, 1942-45, a casualty rate of 44.4 per cent. (Eighteen per cent of the 55,000 — almost 10,000 — were Canadian.) The demographics of aerial bombardment have clearly changed in 80 years.

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30,000 (est.): Number of Iranians killed in December and January during widespread protests against the governing regime and its failed economic policies — though estimates vary between 3,000 and the 45,000 the U.S. president recently claimed. Whatever the true number, what was clearly slaughter prompted Donald Trump’s “HELP IS ON ITS WAY” post of Jan. 13, which he carried through on, albeit with a six-week delay — understandable when aircraft carriers have to be moved many thousands of miles.

40 (est.): Number of Iranian leaders “taken out” in first minutes of war. How many among them were responsible for ordering the 30,000 (or 3,000 or 45,000) deaths? What would be the effect on the U.S. if its 40 most important leaders were “taken out” (and who would such leaders be, exactly)? Would the U.S. cease to function? Would Americans be more or less likely to resist whatever entity was responsible for the “taking out”? Bonus question: How would the average age of the U.S. top 40 compare with the average age of the late Iranian top 40?

6,000 (est.): Age in years of Persian (Iranian) civilization.

46: Number of U.S. presidents since the election of George Washington in 1789 who never threatened to end a civilization, not even a small one.

47th: The number of the U.S. president who did.

47: Number of years of Iran’s “Death to America, Death to Israel” administration.

Three: Number of the world war U.S. President Donald Trump told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy he was risking by resisting Russia’s attempted takeover of his country. What are the odds that a generalized war in the Middle East, including the possible seizure of oil tankers bound for China and Russia, maybe even accompanied by Chinese or Russian warships, could prompt the same event?

Zero: Chance that anyone commenting on the current state of the war or its likely outcome knows how everything will turn out. As the Wall Street Journal’s Holman Jenkins, Jr., recently reminded us all: “The future is unknowable and so is the path untaken.” Hands up, everyone with good information about what’s going on in Iran right now. Mossad may know, but it’s not saying. Yes, Donald Trump does improv. But improv doesn’t always fail. Fan of TACO: Trump always chickens out? How about TABOO: Trump always backs off — once.

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